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券证东兴1DONGXING SECURITIES2012117S1480510120016010-2010-66554044xue_2008200915-6420102090211012342311990201020112012(E)2013(E)2015(E)(%)21.0611.9011.9312.0011.9511.8015-6466.7474.4774.4374.4074.3574.00(%)15-647.639.9910.0310.0710.1110.16()东兴证券11.222.133.13.244.14.2P2DONGXING SECURITIES. 41.11. 4. 4. 9. 92.22012GDP. 10. 13. 13. 14. 16. 16. 18东兴证券126234617181921%242526DONGXING SECURITIESP3CPI . 6. 934511/%. 12. 17. 17. 20. 41993-199419791968. 5. 5. 6572004,%. 7. 8. 108(),%. 109(/),%. 1110/,%. 111112,%. 11. 111314152012-20152012-201515-6415-64-% . 13% . 13. 14162010/11%. 14. 15. 15. 1520,%. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. 18. 19券东兴证P4DONGXING SECURITIES112009200912111.111120101342010330Wind1.21120101.2.11东兴证券DONGXING SECURITIES23CEIC197919681P5CEIC/1993-19941996东兴证券P6DONGXING SECURITIES4 1993-19941M2CEIC2010CPI2012证券东兴DONGXING SECURITIES1.2.212004P72010520042004200420045 2004/东兴证券P8DONGXING SECURITIES6Becker1965Linder1970The Harried Lesiuer Calss1973-19821973200320101983200774.3%71.6% 76% 76.4%2007证券东兴DONGXING SECURITIESP920084008713.5200922003-200822.120092010718122007188-30080-120220093201210(Fast Retailing)20-30%G.U50%证券东兴P10DONGXING SECURITIESNEC200620051112229NEC2.5g201232011419201232298660%2008731183674201122220122011201141212275B2CDHL2011629100%DHL2.22008-2012900002012GDP1001-2000200862.64%20127.34%2001-400029.46%68.24%12.64%20082010215626.00%201234227,%8(),%东兴证券DONGXING SECURITIESP119(/),%10/,%2012/3057/3560/4047/200817642008-20122246295314.93%12.69% 8.41%201126.28% 23.10/201016.42%20084913744811.01%201114.95%11,%12%东兴证券2()/P12DONGXING SECURITIES2012120124001-6000GDP2001-400032008-201214.93%12.60%3%2009201020112012-0.859.5426.0013.4312.8126.2812.6110.4512.6414.93(GDPGDP)-1.84-1.589.488.559.2017.4016.4212.7917.7810.4023.1011.5014.9517.459.2011.747.286.819.008.7012.608.4111.0113.199.38证券东兴DONGXING SECURITIES33.115-642010P13120808020122111.93%201212.00%15-64199066.74%201174.43%2201215 6419972012122011201080201274.40% 20131987/6574.35%3132012-201515-64%142012-201515-64%证兴券东P14DONGXING SECURITIES3.21201121.24%GDP17.45%37.25%2009-2011200936.75%15-162010/11%216-241.025-3445200935-4416-24201032009券东兴证2/DONGXING SECURITIES12008-2012P15171999510.48%181998-20101920,%东兴证券?P16DONGXING SECURITIES44.1211990s%2000s2010s%券证兴东DONGXING SECURITIES1991-1995P17595.59%515.87%19984/2001-2005135154.65% 135.08%143.62%/0.19130.80770.40260.79120.60960.80320.75100.70980.76940.73710.01210.04960.13690.04740.10190.05400.06600.08480.07840.08550.00520.02460.12330.04290.08580.04300.05960.04950.04400.06120.00440.01720.06210.02830.02760.01870.02460.03130.01690.01740.78710.10080.27520.09030.17520.08110.09880.12460.09130.09880.01530.49220.49730.52450.58150.66640.66730.68030.85810.865352007135*135/0.20670.33040.17750.08880.08450.03570.01010.31110.52120.23400.34040.3793证东兴券P18DONGXING SECURITIES0.53330.16620.47860.67800.59710.43000.65510.53460.60780.10720.09060.17280.09840.09300.28690.17550.27650.21020.05550.12820.02790.03500.04720.05580.03230.01150.02990.06540.43380.02250.07370.17470.05950.05020.04760.05360.23860.18120.29820.11480.08820.16760.08700.12970.09840.44910.49990.57970.85761.05451.71162.01812.13252.13532007135*1354.2(w)(2005)(L)2002241.25lnw 2.69252.69lnw东兴证券DONGXING SECURITIES26123P19东兴证券P20DONGXING SECURITIES6/证兴券东DONGXING SECURITIES2008P21920113002011东兴证券P22DONGXING SECURITIES30061563005555-5-515+5+5
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