Earth2100文档

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THE EARTH 2100LUCYIn my life, Ive seen New York City under full quarantine. The Midwest, overrun, devastated by pests. Plagues sweep across California. And then what happened next was something none of us saw coming. It became a race against time to save our future, to even have a future. Its the year 2100 and I-survived.To change the future, first you have to imagine it. Earth 2100 starts now.HOST(MAIN)The idea that within this century, perhaps in your lifetime, our civilization could lie in ruins seems unbelievable. But according to some of the worlds leading minds, thats not just a worst-case scenario, its a real possibility.Good evening, Im Bob Woodruff. Over the next two hours, well take you on a journey into a world that could await us and our children. 370,000 babies will be born today. And weve taken the liberty of creating one more, a fictional character were calling Lucy, who will be our guide through this century. Her life story is not a prediction about what will happen, but what might happen.Jun 02 2100This once glorious city, whose lights at night could be seen for miles, empty now. Its towering skyscrapers, once a testament to our ingenuity, now stand as crumbling monuments to our demise.JOHN PEDESTA“Maybe only artists can grasp what that kind off future really holds for us. Its perhaps in the area that we think of today as science fiction, but that could be a very real future for the planet.”JARED DIAMOND“A hundred years from now, if New York is abandoned, I can imagine some advanced creatures, maybe humans, maybe extraterrestrials, looking at New York and saying, those ignorant people, how on Earth could they have ever expected to survive?”LUCYI can ask myself what happened, but where do I begin? With the droughts, the famines, the plague? It began long before all that. I lived through it all. My story is everyones story, the story of the last century.JUN 02 2009LUCYI was born June 2nd, 2009. Civilization was at a crossroads. We were in a race for our future.OBAMAToday, I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many.NEWSThe temperature is expected to keep going up. The stock market plunged.Douglas County will run out of drinking water.OBAMAThey will not be met easily or in a short span of time.NEWSSixth grader came down with suspected swine flu on Wednesday.THOMAS HOMER DIXONEnergy, climate, food, population, economic pressures, any one of these challenges mightbe very serious in itself. But because theyre happening all simultaneously, its going to be very difficult for our governments to cope.JARED DIAMONDWhen I look at the next century, I feel its up for grabs.NEWS- Raising sea levels.- Catastrophic weather.- Ten-year drought.- its scary.-These are things that are happening today.-The time for action is now.LUCYThe world had never known such uncertainty. We were used to having what we wanted and doling what we wanted.JARED DIAMONDThe analogy that I would draw is someone looking at their bank account and week after week, theyre withdrawing money and theyre enjoying the good life. If they would bother to read the statements, they would see that the bank account is dropping $900, $800, $700, $600. And at that rate you know that another six months of the good life is not gonna be a good life anymore. PETER GLEICKWeve acted as though we were independent of the environment. We burned fossil fuels. Weve overused our renewable resources in the belief that we could do that forever.VAN JONESPeople are complaining about the economic crisis we have right now. You havent seen nothing yet. You know, if we continue down this suicidal pathway that were on, where we basically turn living stuff into dead stuff and call that economic growth, this will look like the good old days.APR 24 2012 THE GOOD OLD DAYSAlthough the world I was born into was running out of so much, water, oil, land, I remember a loving family, a big house, green lawn, more water than we knew what to do with. My parents must have known what was happening. We had a compact car and recycled. And it wasnt just us. Smart, imaginative people everywhere were working furiously on solutions. Our government was pouring money into alternative energy. It seemed like everyone was growing their own vegetable garden. Windmills were sprouting up all over. People were beginning to understand. But the clock was running out, and nature was always one step ahead.TERRY ROOTFlowers are blooming earlier and trees are leafing earlier. Birds are coming back from migration much earlier.JANINE BENYLUS If you were to pull back from the Earth, what you would see is sort of a refugee movement, if you will. And species are moving their ranges farther north to get to cool, from south to north, and from the valleys up to the mountain tops.AUG 27 2014 SUMMER OF THE DRAGONFLYLUCYOf course, as a child, I didnt notice these things, having nothing to compare it to. I was a little girl enchanted by my small world. Until one summer, thousands, maybe millions, of dragonflies showed up out of nowhere. They were delicate and beautiful and I put one in a jar. My mother was puzzled and looked them up. They were supposed to be in Cuba, not Miami. It was not until much later that I realized they were a sign of what was to come.HOST(MAIN)Its 2015, six short years from now, and the best-laid plans are getting underway. A wave farm off Scotland is harnessing the oceans energy. Vatican City has gone totally solar. And here in America, cars are running cleaner and more efficiently. Still, we cling to that old habit, oil, and its getting harder and more expensive to find.NEWSFrom coast to coast, motorists are searching for relief from soaring gas prices in California.THOMAS HOMER DIXONWe could see a doubling or tripling of real oil prices, thats after inflation. MICHAEL KLAREWere running out of oil and weve created a society, the American way of life is what we call it, based on the assumption that oil will be plentiful forever.THOMAS HOMER DIXONThe large spread out suburbs that weve grown accustomed to, the strip malls, the big box stores with their enormous parking lots around them, all of those have been made possible because weve had cheap gasoline, and as energy becomes much more expensive, youll see that those areas become less desirable places to live.FEB 18 2015 MOVING DAYLUCYThe first time I moved, I was six. A lot of people were leaving the suburbs for the city. There were new jobs, and you didnt need a car for everything. My dad was going to work on the new streetcar system in Miami. And my mother told me we were going to live on the top floor of an apartment building. She said wed see the palm trees below us. I was excited, but also a little sad to leave.NEWSAs the price of oil goes up, It will ripple through every part of the global economy.In Washington today, protesters demanded an end to rising food prices.Our agriculture system is almost wholly dependent on cheap oil.JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLERTremendous amounts of diesel fuel that are used in planting and harvesting and then moving the stuff, all these vast distances.HEIDI CULLENBy 2015 in the United States, add about 20 million people to the population and then just play out what that does to consumption patterns. I mean, the, the number of people that weve got to feed. Theres just basically this slow, creeping tension for natural resources.HOSTAs the American way of life becomes increasingly unsustainable, the rest of the world will be trying to catch up. ELIZABETH ECONOMYThe Chinese like cars. And they like big cars. You have 14,000 cars out onto Chinas roads daily.ROZ MAYLORIncomes are rising really rapidly. Theyre moving into meat-based diets.HOSTYou need 10 pounds of grain to get one pound of meat.There is simply no way that the rest of the world can start eating meat the way we do.HOSTIf everyone in the world consumed as much as the average American, It would take the resources of four Earths to support the planets population, which raises the question, should the rest of the world consume less, or should we? American habits, though, are hard to break. RICHARD HEINBERGWe in the US have gotten used to the idea that were somehow immune to natural limits and its the other people who are going to suffer.JUL 14 2015 RUNNING ON EMPTYNEWSGood morning, Miami. The summer of 2015 is on track to become one of the hottest in history. Temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits.LUCYMy mother and I were waiting for gas. The line went around the block and then some. Nothing new. But this time, the line had stopped moving altogether. A man who worked at the gas station came out holding a sign. People started yelling and they got out of their cars and started moving towards him. My mother got us out of there fast. SEP 08 2015NEWSIve been staking out an area thats been hit hard recently by gas snatchers. Look at him, he gets out, walks right up to the car. Wow. Look at this, right in the middle of the day. Theres cars going by, and these guys are -siphoning gas out of someones car.In the face of mounting protests over rising gas and food prices, Congress today approved a plan to fund the construction of 40 new coal-fired power plants over the next five years.LUCYThe country took the easy way out. Coal was once again touted as our so- called salvation. But the more coal we burned, the faster our planet warmed. You get the picture.PETER CLEICKWere spewing more carbon, more methane, more nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. All the bad things of climate change are coming true. LUCYAnd most people were just going along with their everyday lives as if nothing had changed. THOMAS HOMER DIXONAnd until we have a crisis of some kind, I dont think were going to be motivated to wake up and say, okay, now we have to change.JOHN PODESTA Sometimes it takes a big shock to get people, you know, out of the inertia that, that, thats built into the system.OCT 21 2015 WAKE UP CALL (12:15)NEWSTheyre calling it the storm of the century, Hurricane Linda packing Category 5 winds.LUCYBig storms werent unusual. But this one was bigger than the others. And it was headed for Miami.NEWSAll coastal regions are being evacuated. This storm makes landfall, were going to see a tremendous storm surge.LUCYMy mother was a nurse and she wouldnt leave until all the sick were evacuated from the hospital. My father was afraid we wouldnt get out in time. I was afraid too.NEWSThose who make the decision not to evacuate face life threatening danger, between the howling winds and those giant surging waves. Miami is a very scary place to be right now.HOST2015 is only six years away, but many experts say that if the world has not reached an agreement to massively reduce greenhouse gases by then, we could pass the point of no return.JOHN HOLDREDIf were still dragging our feet in 2015, it really becomes almost impossible for the world to avert a degree of climate change that we simply will not be able to manage.THOMAS HOMER DIXONThe longer we wait without addressing these challenges in an aggressive way, the more likely it is were going to end up with really bad outcomes.NEWSThis morning, in the aftermath of Hurricane Linda, we are seeing the first images of what remains of Miami. Neighbouring communities have been overwhelmed by hundreds of thousands of evacuees seeking refuge.OCT 23 2015 AFTER THE STORM(14:00)LUCYThe evacuation center was as big as an airplane hangar. Maybe it was an airplane hangar. And so jammed with people, It was hard to move. It was hot. It was noisy. We were there three weeks. There was nowhere for us to go. Nowhere for anybody to go. We watched the news on TV. I was only six, but it looked to me like the whole world was in trouble.NEWSSome 250,000 Bangladeshi refugees fleeing from last months devastating cyclone are massing on the Indian border. Thousands riot as China faces its worst wheat shortages in a decade, the result of seemingly endless drought.World leaders are gathering in Washington, DC to attend an emergency global summit meeting.Hopes are high that the world might finally reach an historic climate agreement.EO WILSONThis is the first time the whole planet is in that kind of a crisis and the whole planet has to join in meeting a crisis of epical proportions.HOSTIn 2008, the Center for the New American Security, a Washington think tank, staged an elaborate game. The goal was to simulate a global summit on climate change. The year is 2015. The context for the game is Lucys context. Miami has been devastated by a hurricane, and Bangladesh ravaged by a cyclone. The people who are playing the roles of global leaders are in fact high level policymakers from around the world. “Let me be very clear, our time is running out. ” John Podesta, President Obamas transition chief, is playing the role of UN Secretary General. “Indeed today, in October of 2015, no country, no city is exempt from the ravages of climate change as we saw so tragically with the Category 5 hurricane that hit Miami.”HOSTIn the game, the Secretary General has asked for a 30% reduction In emissions by 2025. The US team holds a closed-door strategy session. “Its very important for us to strike that very positive leadership tone right out of the box.”“We have to be much faster and more serious about emission reductions.”“We need to do 30% .- By 2025?- By 2025.”HOSTBut theres a strong disagreement about whether the American public would be willing to make that kind of sacrifice.“Basically, the odds of a 30% reduction in the United States in 10 years is zero.”“The world is going to hell in a hand basket and were saying, gee, can we stretch this out?”HOSTEven If the United States were willing to make these reductions, this is a global crisis that needs global action. The US calls a meeting with China.“We have an inherent responsibility to our people to take action.”HOSTIn 2015, China and India are in fact projected to account for more than 30% of the worlds carbon emissions. But in the simulation, theyre unwilling to agree to a treaty they feel limits their economic growth. For both countries, the issue is fairness. “The Western countries went through a very energy intensive development process, became rich by burning coal and burning oil. Can countries like India and China do it without burning a