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Chinas exchange rate policy to the evaluationAbstract: this article from the four aspects of RMB exchange rate policy, that in the past five years, Chinas trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement; The existing international organization for its members though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but have no enforcement; The current Chinese exchange rate policy, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is bad; For Chinas exchange rate policy, at present there are generally an error, which greatly, rapid appreciation of the RMB not feasible, not suitable for; China should immediately be RMB exchange rate from the current level to rise by 10-15 percent.I. introduction and previewThank you Mr. Chairman gave me the opportunity to speak to me Chinese exchange rate policys views. First of all, in the past five years, Chinas exchange rate policy reform in the slow progress; Secondly, Id like to say why Chinas exchange rate reform statement to the Chinese economy will slow progress, the American economy, international monetary system, and the global trading system have an important impact on; Again, I mainly expounds the relevant Chinese exchange rate reform is slow excuse and cant convincing alibi and reasons; Fourth, about Chinas exchange-rate policy of several erroneous zone. At last, I in China in the next one to two years, in promoting exchange rate reform can and should take some action, I will take this a few problems initiates.First, in the past five years, Chinas trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement. In 2006, Chinas current-account surplus soared (soar) to 9% of GDP, at present the RMB against Chinas trade partners of the mean value at least 30% undervalued currency; Against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. From June 2005 to now, up 6.5% against the dollar, but relatively revaluation of the RMB against the dollar was not enough to suspend (halt) Chinas competitive power in the international market of cumulative rises, also did not reduce Chinas trade surplus.Second, the existing international organization for its members though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but are not enforced. First look at the Chinese government, although China in the past four years have been engaged in a lot of, single direction of the foreign exchange market intervention, the Chinese authorities are still denied currency manipulation. Second look at the Treasury, although a lot of evidence showing China handle the truth in the foreign exchange market, but the Treasury still refused to China defined as currency manipulator. Finally see the international monetary fund, although the IMF is one of the original intention was established to promote the development of all countries exchange rate policy, but now it looks, the IMFs senior officials have also would not for a dedicated to the IMF construction supervision and restraint world international coordinating mechanism of exchange rate policy.The third, and the slowness of the progress of Chinas exchange rate policy reform, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is unfavorable.In Chinas case, the RMB is undervalued currency manipulation and serious fact behavior of China to the foreign trade from the balance and consumption Spill-over economic growth target, also on the Chinas monetary policy independence, also interfere with the reform of the Chinese banking system, and improve the international society to China in international currency and trade system inside become a responsible stakeholder in doubt. For America, the RMB is the modest rise not promote Asia the positive development of exchange rate system and the role of the U.S. trade deficit and no so and be able to improve and will not reduce the dollar crisis happened U.S. economy and the risk of a hard landing. If this situation continues, emerging market countries may follow China in succession, that will give the global currency system brings the serious influence, and even can be caused by the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries of the backlash.Fourth , the Chinese exchange rate policy , the current prevalence of a misunderstanding, that the RMB is substantially rapid appreciation is not feasible , is not suitable . This understanding is incorrect. Large appreciation of the RMB will not give the economic development, employment and social stability in China have devastating effects. Take bolder action on RMB exchange rate in Chinas banking system is not broken, also there is no need to put in further reforms of the financial system. If the United States Treasury to China a currency manipulator, which will be conducive to Chinas exchange rate system reform.Fifth, China should immediately from the current level , the RMB exchange rate appreciated by 10-15percent. In view of the exchange rate of the RMB long underestimated, it the adverse effect is difficult to through the modest rise again to eliminate. Only the RMB exchange rate rise sharply to completely disposable, solve the problem. A small revaluation of the RMB against the dollar (such as rising 5% a year), to America, scant effect, because the united himself in the cut trade deficit will be difficult. In order to improve the social stability, China in promoting more bold exchange rate reform (Bolder exchange rate action) at the same time, should be increased government spending, adjust expenditure direction, so as to promote the construction of social security network, reduce the precautionary saving not high. The Treasury should explain to the Chinese government, and from now on the Treasury will have been to investigate Chinas current account balance, the change of actual and effective exchange rate changes every month and the Chinese government intervening in the foreign exchange market situation, assess external adjustment and reform of Chinas exchange rate effect. The Treasury should the urgent requirement of Chinas exchange rate issues in May 2007 as a china-us strategic economic dialogue on the agenda to pressure the government to China, until achieved effect so far. If the exchange rate of the RMB was not yet increase, in the Treasury report to congress in the material, it should be defined as China currency manipulator. Finally, the international monetary fund was established to promote global exchange rate is one of the development of the system, but the IMF the problem is it not only to the exchange rate system change provide guidelines, more should urges countries to exchange rate system to reform, this is all countries promote exchange rate system favorable development of effective way.II. four indicatorsLooking back on the past five years Beijing and Washington issued announcement, you might think that China is moving toward reduce external economic imbalance, adjust the exchange rate policy direction. Here I use four index rethinking about the question, will get a different conclusion. The first indicator: Chinas current-account surplus：In the past five years , China s current account surplus has been growing , and 1% of GDP in 2001 , nearly 9 percent of GDP in 2006 . Calculated in U.S. dollars , China is the largest country in the world on a trade surplus ; the current account balance accounted for the proportion of economies of scale to measure Chinas trade surplus is more serious than the U.S. trade deficit . Compared with the same period in 2006, the first two months of 2007 , Chinas current account balance increased by 225% . Visible, the external equilibrium of the Chinese economy is even worse. The second indicator: Chinas actual effective exchange rate：Compared with the nominal exchange rate, actual and effective exchange rate is measured economic competitiveness of Chinas more appropriate index. In the past five, six years, against the dollars actual and effective exchange rate increased 2%. Some people think that the RMB against the US dollar was 6.5%, from RMB 1 dollar to 8.28 to 1 dollar to 7.73 RMB (March 22, 2007), the effect is remarkable. In fact, the RMB is still undervalued, RMB against the Chinese trade partner of the mean value at least 30% undervalued currency; against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. And relative appreciation against the dollar does not help to reduce trade surplus. The third indicator: the RMB exchange rate of the market economy：In June 2005, the Chinese government announced on the RMB exchange rate system to reform, realize the exchange rate of the market economy. But in fact the RMB exchange rate and not out of the market economy. In order to maintain the currency relative stability, the Chinese government has been manipulating foreign exchange market, every month amount of intervention last year to $20 billion. This and announced that the RMB exchange rate reform of before the first half year of 2005 level is consistent. In the past three years, Chinas foreign exchange market intervention level of 10% of GDP. More seriously, a lot of intervention in the foreign exchange market at the same time, the central bank had a lot of Write-off operation, this kind of behavior circulation at the same time (the domestic money supply increased, inflation rate growth), foreign exchange reserves will continue to rise, otherwise, even if the RMB nominal exchange rate unchanged, the competitiveness of China can seriously reduce. In fact, the RMB exchange rate is still controlled prospective fixed rate. The fourth indicator: As a member of the IMF, to fulfill the commitment of the exchange rate policy：As one of the IMF member countries, China should fulfill its commitment to reform its exchange rate policy. A member of the IMF have promised not to currency manipulation, the Chinese government also insisted that no manipulation of the foreign exchange market. One of the primary means of manipulating the exchange rate of Chinas monetary authorities, continued to intervene in the foreign exchange marketIII. the significance. At some point: the economy of China external disequilibrium state and RMB underestimated conditions improve, whether have improved speed and what is not important, but I dont think so.The significance of China: Obviously, Chinas exchange rate policy on China, is very important. Chinese authorities say they are willing to from investment and export-led growth strategy to consumption and domestic demand investment-driven growth change, also would like to turn to more independent monetary policy, and consolidate their banking systems. As Chinas economy in the world economy in the proportion of growth, China hopes to become a responsible stakeholder. But, the RMB is undervalued and serious interest rate behavior led to the manipulation of the Chinese is difficult to achieve the goal. If not greatly raise interest rates, it is difficult to keep the existing Chinese investment levels, reduce the uncertainty of growth, because only then can attract a lot of speculative capital inflows, but also to the exchange rate reform brings great pressure. When the RMB is serious underestimate, export and trade surplus production capacity will be difficult to lower down, which show that the situation development is more and more disadvantage. Chinas commercial Banks are right now is: hand holding the central bank to write-off the operation, low yield of; Reserve rate are improving; RMB underestimated the headline foreign exchange reserve climbed, even if a large amount of write-off, part of foreign exchange reserves transformed into the fast growth the commercial bank loan; Many commercial bank loan object and the loan amount is designated by the central bank. Therefore, the reform of Chinas commercial banks is difficult. In addition, Chinas exports to the industrialized countries and attract foreign investment is difficult to maintain stability.IV. Countermeasures As mentioned above, not too much criticism of the Chinese exchange rate policy, then if the recent exchange rate system reform in China is not ideal , in order to avoid adverse impact on Chinas exchange rate policy to the parties in the next few years , China can take What measures ? Chinas urgent is the RMB appreciation from the current level of 10-15 percent. One way is to directly to RMB valuation, another method is to stop intervening in the foreign exchange market, let the RMB to rise. If China in 2003 and 2004 and the realization of the trade surplus reduced gradually, the RMB devalues gradually words, the situation will be better. Now the situation is: RMB underestimated badly, must carry on stage to RMB exchange rate adjustment. Should make clear of the RMB against the dollar is relatively slow appreciation can not solve the problem. The real effective exchange rate $assumptions in the next three years worth 15%-20%, even if the RMB against the dollar to rise by 5% a year, and its real effective exchange rate also wont have a big revaluation, that is, the real effective exchange rate by the influence of the dollar. Therefore, cant isolated see the name of the RMB against the dollar exchange rate is in appreciation. More seriously, when the slow appreciation in orbit, the market could expect the RMB has an unexpected rise sharply, this will cause of speculative capital inflows into China. To sum up, Nick Lardy and Ive always thought the RMB to rise sharply, one-time is the right move, is RMB monetary system reform of the two-step first step. In bold the exchange rate adjustment at the same time, the Chinese government should adjust the direction of expansion of government spending, expenses, including medical, education and perfect pension system, social security system, decreased due to imperfect social security caused by the high savings rate. In addition, China should abandon the RMB exchange rate is a national sovereignty ideas, strict compliance with IMF members on the exchange rate policy of the treaty.The United States National Economic Council, March 28, 2007Peterson institute for international economics, Morris Goldstein对中国汇率政策的评估摘 要：本文从四个方面阐述了人民币汇率政策，即在过去的五年中，中国的贸易不平衡和汇率体系在不断恶化，没有好转的迹象；现有的国际组织虽然对其成员国的汇率政策有明确的规定，但都没有强制执行；目前的中国汇率政策无论对中国、美国，还是其他国家都是不利的；对于中国汇率政策，目前普遍存在着一个误区，即人民币大幅度、快速升值不可行、不适合；中国应该立即将人民币汇率从目前的水平上升值10%15%。一、 介绍和预览感谢主席先生给我这个机会来陈述我对中国汇率政策的一些看法。首先，在过去的五年中，中国在推进汇率政策改革方面进展缓慢；其次，我想陈述为什么说中国汇率改革进展缓慢会对中国经济、美国经济、国际货币体系、以及全球贸易体系产生重要影响；再次，我主要阐述有关中国汇率改革进展缓慢的借口和托辞并不能令人信服的原因；第四，关于中国汇率政策的几个误区。最后，我对中国在未来的一至两年内，在推进汇率改革方面能够和应该采取哪些行动，我将就这几个问题逐一论述。第一、在过去的五年中，中国的贸易不平衡和汇率体系在不断恶化，没有好转的迹象。2006年，中国的经常账户余额飙升（soar）到GDP的9%，目前人民币兑中国贸易伙伴国货币的均值至少低估30%；人民币兑美元，则至少低估了40%。从2005年6月至今，人民币兑美元上升了6.5%，但是人民币对美元的相对升值还不足以中止（halt）中国在国际市场上的竞争力的累积性上升，也没有降低中国的贸易顺差。第二，现有的国际组织虽然对其成员国的汇率政策有明确的规定，但都没有强制执行。首先看中国政府，尽管中国在过去的四年中一直从事大量的、单方向的外汇市场干预，中国当局仍然否认货币操纵。其次看美国财政部，尽管大量证据显示中国对外汇市场的操纵事实，但美国财政部仍然拒绝将中国定义为“货币操纵国”。最后看国际货币基金组织，虽然IMF成立的初衷之一是推动各国汇率政策的发展，但是目前看来，IMF高级官员没有也不愿意将IMF建设为一个致力于监督并约束世界各国汇率政策的国际协调机构。第三、进展缓慢的中国汇率政策改革对中国是不利的。对于中国而言，人民币的严重低估事实和汇率操纵行为背离了中国向外贸平衡和消费带动型经济增长的目标，也影响了中国货币政策的独立性，还妨碍了中国银行体系的改革，也提高了国际社会对中国在国际货币和贸易体系内成为一个“负责任的利益相关者”的疑虑。对美国而言，人民币的这种小幅升值没有起到促进亚洲地区汇率体系的良性发展的作用，美国的贸易赤字也没有因此而得以改善，也不会降低发生美元危机以及美国经济硬着陆的风险。如果这种状况持续下去，新兴市场国家有可能纷纷效仿中国，那将会给全球汇率体系带来严重影响，甚至有可能引发美国、欧洲、日本等国的报复行动。第四、对于中国汇率政策，目前普遍存在着一个误区，即人民币大幅度、快速升值不可行、不适合。这种认识是不正确的。人民币大幅升值不会给中国经济发展、就业、社会稳定带来灾难性的影响。对人民币汇率采取更大胆的行动既不会破坏中国的银行体系，也没有必要放在金融体系的进一步改革之后。如果美国财政部将中国定义为汇率操纵国，这将有利于中国汇率制度的变革。第五、中国应该将人民币汇率从目前的水平上升值10%15%。鉴于人民币汇率长期低估，它产生的不良效应很难通过一次次小幅升值来消除。只有人民币汇率一次性、大幅升值才能彻底解决问题。人民币相对美元小幅升值（比如每年上升5%），对美国来说起不到什么作用，因为美国自己在削减贸易逆差上很有难度。为了提高社会稳定性，中国在推进更大胆的汇率改革（Bolder exchange rate action）的同时，应该增加政府开支、调整开支方向，从而推动社会保障网络的建设，降低高居不下的预防性储蓄。美国财政部应该向中国政府说明，从今以后美国财政部将一直考察中国的经常账户余额的变化，实际有效汇率变动以及中国政府每个月对外汇市场的干预情况，据此评估中国外部调整和汇率改革效果。美国财政部应该迫切要求把中国的汇率问题列为2007年5月召开的中美战略经济对话的首要议程，以此向中国政府施加压力，直到取得效果为止。如果人民币汇率那时还没有大幅提高，在美国财政部给国会的汇报材料中，应该将中国定义为汇率操纵国。最后，世界货币基金组织成立的目的之一就是促进推动全球汇率体系的发展，但是IMF目前的问题是它不仅仅要为汇率体系变革提供指导方针，更应该督促各国汇率体系去改革，这才是促进各国汇率体系良性发展的有效途径。二、 四个指标回顾过去的五年中北京和华盛顿发布的公告，你可能会认为，中国正朝着减少外部经济失衡、调整汇率政策的方向发展。这里我用四个指标重新考量一下这个问题，就会得到一个不同的结论。第一个指标：中国的经常账户盈余。在过去的五年中，中国的经常账户盈余一直在增长，2001年为GDP的1%，2006年接近GDP的9%。以美元来计算，中国是世界上贸易顺差最大的国家；以经常账户余额占经济规模的比重来衡量，中国的贸易顺差比美国的贸易逆差问题更加严重。与2006年同期相比，2007年的前两个月，中国的经常账户余额增幅达225%。可见，中国经济的外部均衡状态更加恶化。第二个指标：中国的实际有效汇率。与名义汇率相比，实际有效汇率是衡量中国经济竞争力的更合适的指标。在过去的五、六年间，人民币兑美元的实际有效汇率增长了2%。有些人认为人民币兑美元升值了6.5%，从1美元兑8.28人民币降到1美元兑7.73人民币（2007年3月22日），效果显著。事实上，人民币目前还是被低估了，人民币兑中国贸易伙伴国货币的均值至少低估30%；人民币兑美元，则至少低估了40%。而且人民币兑美元相对升值无助于削减贸易顺差。第三个指标：人民币汇率市场化。2005年6月，中国政府宣布对人民币汇率体系进行改革，实现汇率市场化。但事实上人民币汇率并没有实现市场化。为了维持人民币相对稳定，中国政府一直在操纵外汇市场，去年每个月的干预额度达到200亿美元。这和宣布人民币汇率改革之前的2005年上半年的水平是一致的。在过去的三年中，中国外汇市场的干预程度达到GDP的10%。更严重的是，对外汇市场的大量干预的同时中央银行进行了大量的“冲销”操作，这种行为循环的同时（国内货币供应不断增加、通货膨胀率增长），外汇储备必然不断攀升，否则，即使人民币的名义汇率维持不变，中国的竞争力也会严重降低。事实表明，人民币汇率仍然是受管制的准固定利率。第四个指标：作为IMF的成员国，是否履行汇率政策方面的承诺。作为国际货币基金组织的成员国之一，中国应该履行改革汇率政策的承诺。IMF的每一个成员国都承诺不“操纵汇率”，中国政府也坚持认为没有操纵外汇市场。中国货币当局操纵汇率的主要手段之一是大量的、持续的干预外汇市场。三、 意义何在有些观点认为：中国经济的外部不均衡状态以及人民币汇率低估状况是否改善、改善得快慢并不是什么重要问题，但我不这样认为。对中国的意义：显然，中国的汇率政策对中国自己来讲至关重要。中国当局表示他们愿意从投资和出口导向型经济增长战略转向消费和内需拉动型增长转变，也愿意转向更加独立的货币政策，同时巩固他们的银行系统。随着中国经济在世界经济中比重的增长，中国希望能够成为一个“负责任的利益相关者”。但是，人民币的严重低估和对利率的操纵行为导致中国难以实现上述目标。如果不大幅提高利率，中国很难保持现有的投资水平，降低增长的不确定性，因为只有这样才能吸引大量的投机资金流入，但也给汇率改革带来了很大压力。当人民币被严重的低估时，出口和贸易行业过剩的生产能力就难以降低下来，这都表明形势发展越来越不利。中国的商业银行现在的状况是：手中持有央行用来冲销操作的大量、低收益债券；准备金率不断提高；人民币汇率低估导致外汇储备不断攀升，即使采取大量的冲销，部分外汇储备转化成了快速增长的商业银行贷款；不少商业银行的贷款对象和贷款数额是由中央银行指定的。因此，中国的商业银行的改革困难重重。此外，中国向工业化国家出口和吸引国外投资上难以保持稳定。四、应对之策如前文所述，美国不能对中国汇率政策过多批评，那么如果近期中国的汇率制度改革不理想，为了避免中国的汇率政策给各方带来不良影响，在未来的几年里，中国可以采取哪些措施呢？中国的当务之急是将人民币从目前的水平上升值10%15%。一种方法是直接对人民币重新估值，另一种方法是停止对外汇市场的干预，任人民币自动上浮。如果中国在2003年至2004年间实现了贸易顺差的逐步降低，人民币逐渐贬值的话，现在的形势就要好很多。但现在的情况是：人民币严重低估，必须对人民币汇率进行阶段性调整。首先要明确的是人民币兑美元相对缓慢的升值解决不了问题。假设美元的实际有效汇率在未来的三年中贬值15%20%，即使人民币兑美元每年升值5%，其真实有效汇率也不会有大幅升值，也就是说，人民币实际有效汇率受美元贬值的影响。因此，不能孤立的看人民币兑美元的名义汇率是否在升值。更严重的是，当人民币在缓慢升值的轨道上运行时，市场有可能期望人民币有一个意外的大幅升值，这将招致大量投机资本的流入中国。综上所述，尼克拉迪（Nick Lardy）和我一直认为人民币一次性、大幅升值是正确的举措，是人民币货币体系改革两步曲的第一步。在进行大胆的汇率调整的同时，中国政府应该扩大政府开支、调整开支方向，健全包括医疗、教育和养老体系在内的社会保障体系，降低由于社会保障不健全而引发的高储蓄率。另外，中国应该抛弃“人民币汇率是国家主权问题”的想法，严格谨遵IMF成员国关于汇率政策的条约。美国国家经济局，2007年3月28日彼得森国际经济研究所 莫里斯戈尔茨坦（Morris Goldstein）13
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