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20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,Board Pres.)(JS)-7,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Unit of measure,*,Footnote,Source:Source,ITES/BPO Opportunity to move up the value chain?,January 13,2004,This report is solely for the use of client personnel.No part of it may be circulated,quoted,or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey it is not a complete record of the discussion.,Presentation at iTECH 2004,Source:Gartner;Dataquest;Aberdeengroup;McKinseyanalysis,Supply-side enablers,Telecom costs down by 90%in the last 3 years;world-class reliability,Over 2.5 million low-cost talented workers in countries such as India and Philippines,Emergence of a credible vendor community,0.0,0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0,1.2,1.4,1.6,1.8,2.0,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,E,BPO total revenues-India example*,$billion,CONTEXT:BUSINESSPROCESSOFFSHORINGHASEXPLODEDINTHELASTFEWYEARS,Encouraging track record of early movers,Demanding U.S market environment,Successful track record of I/T offshoring,Demand side forces,1,030918Offshoringworkshopv2,“,TechjobsleaveU.S.forIndia,Russia.Who,stoblame?,”,”,July2003,“,Isyourjobnext?,”,”,February2003,BUTHASALSOCREATEDGREATANXIETYINPRIMARYMARKETS,“,AmericanlegislatorsareaccusingIndiaofstealingjobs”,June2003,“,Americaspain,India,sgain”,January2003,“3.3,million U.S.servicejobs to go offshore by 2015,”,”,November 2002,“,CanAmericaLose These Jobsand Still Prosper?”,July2003,U.S.HouseSub-businessCommittee,2,INTHIS CONTEXT,SEVERALDOUBTS HAVEARISEN ABOUT THEFUNDAMENTALLONGEVITYAND EVOLUTIONOFBPOASANINDUSTRY,Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?,Even if it survives,moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?,Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?,3,20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-7,INTHIS CONTEXT,SEVERALDOUBTS HAVEARISEN ABOUT THEFUNDAMENTALLONGEVITYAND EVOLUTIONOFBPOASANINDUSTRY,Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?,Even if it survives,moving up the value chain will be difficult and will take several years?,Value chain moves will be the domain of captives because the trust required is too high?,4,20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,BoardPres.)(JS)-7,0.33,*,Estimatebasedonhistorical U.S.reemployment trends,Source:McKinsey GlobalInstitute,1.,OFFSHORING ACTUALLY GENERATESGREATER VALUE FORTHEGLOBAL ECONOMY,Taxes($0.04),Revenues($0.20),Localsuppliers($0.09),.,deliversvaluetoIndia.,0.67,Cost savings($0.58),Goodssold($0.05),Profits fromIndian ventures($0.04),.,bringsreturnstoU.S.,1.45-1.47,.,andmakesthe globalpiethatmuch bigger,0.45-0.47,.,creates newvaluefrom re-employingU.S.labor*.,$1,previouslyspent in U.S.,nowoffshoredtoIndia.,$1.00,5,0.03,0.33,0.10,0.09,0.10,0.01,Profits retained in India,INDIACAPTURES33CENTSFROM EACHDOLLAROFSPENDOFFSHOREDBYTHE U.S.,Valueaccrued from$1ofU.S.spendoffshored,1,Dollars;2002,Central govern-ment,3,Stategovern-ment,4,Totalvalueaccrued to India,Labor,Suppliers,2,Offshoringsector,1,Estimatedusingthe India offshoredservicesindustrycase,2Includes revenueaccruedtothesupplierindustriesless sales taxes,incometaxestoemployees andcorporatetaxes,3Includes incometaxfromlaboremployedintheoffshored services sectorandthe supplier industriesand corporatetaxonthe supplier industries,4 Includessalestax onthe supplier industriesand revenuefromthe sale ofpowerto offshoredservice providers,Source:McKinsey GlobalInstitute,6,JOBS OFFSHORED WILL BE ASMALLFRACTION OFTHE SHORTAGE IN ELIGIBLE WORKERS,Numberof workers,Millions,2000-2015,Source:U.S.Census;McKinseyGlobalInstitute,Jobs projected togo offshore,Decline in workingpopulationdue toaging,7,JOBS OFFSHORED AREA FRACTIONOF ALLMASSLAYOFFS,1,Bureauof labor statistics defines mass layoffsas joblossactions leading tothe displacementof 50or more workers bya given establishment duringa 5-week period,2Average 1996-99,3Average 1989-2000,4Average 2003-13,Source:NBER;BLS;Kletzer;McKinseyGlobal Institute,Average annual mass layoffs,1,Millions,All mass layoffs,2,Offshoring projection,4,Trade-related layoffs,3,8,Economic value of off-shoring real,Off-shoring creates 40-50%greater value for the global economy,India captures 33%of every off-shored dollar while the US retains 67%and the incremental 40-50%value creation,Off-shored jobs small fraction of expected retirements/lay-offs,THEREFORE,BUSINESS LOGIC WOULD INDICATE THAT BPO HERETO STAY BUT WILL REQUIRE HANDLINGCUSTOMER CONCERNSWITHCOMPASSION,Negative emotional impact at the customer equally real,Real people and communities are effected,Re-training takes time,Manufacturing hang-over still felt,9,20030520,DL-ZXE332(ITES,Board Pres.)(JS)-7,IN THIS CONTEXT,SEVERALDOUBTS HAVEARISEN ABOUT THEFUNDAMENTALLONGEVITY AND EVOLUTIONOF BPOAS ANINDUSTRY,Will the BPO phenomenon plateau out in the next few years?,Even if it survives,moving up the value chain
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