西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Slide 16-,*,Click to Edit Master Title Style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,2006 Worth Publishers,CHAPTER 08,INFLATION,DISINFLATION,AND DEFLATION,Slide,1,What You Will Learn in this Chapter:,Why efforts to collect an inflation tax by printing money can lead to high rates of inflation,How high inflation can spiral into hyperinflation as the public tries to avoid paying the inflation tax,The economy-wide costs of inflation and disinflation,and the debate over the optimal rate of inflation,Why even moderate levels of inflation can be hard to end,Why deflation is a problem for economic policy,2,Money and Inflation,Between 1985 and 1995 Brazil demonstrated what really serious inflation up to almost 3,000%per year looks like.,3,Money and Prices,According to the,classical model of the price level,the real quantity of money is always at its long-run equilibrium level.,4,Money Supply Growth and Inflation in Brazil,5,The Inflation Tax,The,inflation tax,is the reduction in the real value of money held by the public caused by inflation,equal to the inflation rate times the money supply,on those who hold money,The real value of resources captured by the government is reflected by the,real inflation tax,the inflation rate times the real money supply,6,The Logic of Hyperinflation,To avoid paying the inflation tax,people reduce their real money holdings and force the government to increase inflation to capture the same amount of real inflation tax,In some cases,this leads to a vicious circle of a shrinking real money supply and a rising rate of inflation,leading to,hyperinflation,and a fiscal crisis,In 1923,Germanys money was worth so little that children used stacks of banknotes as building blocks,7,Money and Prices in Brazil,1985-1995,8,Effects of Inflation,Winners and Losers from Unexpected Inflation,The nominal interest rate is equal to the real interest rate plus the inflation rate,The expected inflation rate is accounted for in the nominal interest rate on a loan,Inflation that is higher than expected benefits borrowers and hurts lenders,Inflation that is lower than expected benefits lenders and hurts borrowers,9,Effects of Inflation,Expected Inflation and Interest Rates,According to the,Fisher effect,expected inflation raises the nominal interest rate one-for-one,so the real interest rate remains unchanged,10,The Fisher Effect,11,The Costs of Inflation,Shoe-leather costs,are the increased costs of transactions that arise from the publics efforts to avoid the inflation tax,Menu costs,are the costs of changing prices,Unit-of-account costs,are costs that arise because money ceases to be a reliable measure of value,Although there are arguments for a negative rate of inflation(deflation),in practice policy-makers tend to aim for low but positive rates of inflation,12,Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates in Canada,13,Moderate Inflation and Disinflation,Even countries that dont need to print money to cover government deficits can still experience moderate inflation rates:,Either because of,political opportunism,Or because of,wishful thinking,14,Moderate Inflation and Disinflation,When moderate inflation happens,getting it back down can be difficult because,disinflation,can be very costly,requiring the sacrifice of large amounts of potential output and imposing high levels of unemployment,The costs of disinflation could be reduced if policy-makers explicitly state their determination to reduce inflation,15,Supply Shocks,Another factor that contributed to the rise of Canadas inflation in the 1970s and its decline in the 1980s was a series of supply shocks,first negative and then positive,16,The Great Disinflation of the 1980s,17,Effects of Deflation,Unexpected deflation,like unexpected inflation,produces both winners and losers but in the opposite direction,Lenders,who are owed money,gain because the real value of borrowers payments increases,Borrowers lose because the real burden of their debt rises,The overall effect of unexpected deflation is to reduce aggregate demand,which can intensify an economic downturn,The reduction in aggregate demand caused by deflation is called,debt deflation,Effects of Unexpected Deflation,18,Effects of Deflation,There is a,zero bound,on the nominal interest rate:It cannot go below zero,A situation in which monetary policy cant be used because nominal interest rates cannot fall below the zero bound is known as a,liquidity trap,A liquidity trap can occur whenever there is a sharp reduction in demand for loanable funds,Effects of Expected Deflation,19,Japans Trap,20,演讲完毕，谢谢观看！,内容总结,CHAPTER 08。Money and Inflation。Money and Prices。The Inflation Tax。The Fisher Effect。Effects of Deflation。演讲完毕，谢谢观看,