全球贸易概况

,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Click to edit Master title style,*,1,本章,概,概述,贸易,开,开放,度,度的,衡,衡量,全球,贸,贸易,总,总量,和,和结,构,构分,布,布,美国,的,的国,际,际贸,易,易概,况,况,双边,国,国际,贸,贸易,额,额的,主,主要,决,决定,因,因素,引力,模,模型,的,的基,本,本内,容,容,引力,模,模型,的,的拓,展,展形,式,式,引力,模,模型,的,的最,新,新发,展,展,2,引例,：,：,世界,第,第一,大,大经,济,济体,的,的贸,易,易伙,伴,伴,2011,年美,国,国的,前,前十,大,大贸,易,易伙,伴,伴分,别,别是,加,加拿,大,大、,中,中国,、,、墨,西,西哥,、,、日,本,本、,德,德国,、,、英,国,国、,韩,韩国,、,、巴,西,西、,荷,荷兰,和,和沙,特,特阿,拉,拉,伯,美国,的,的十,大,大贸,易,易伙,伴,伴国,中,中有,六,六个,属,属于,全,全球,经,经济,体,体最,大,大的,国,国家,之,之列,：,：中,国,国、,日,日本,、,、德,国,国、,英,英国,、,、韩,国,国和,巴,巴西,。,。为,什,什么,会,会是,这,这样,的,的情,况,况呢,？,？,加拿,大,大和,墨,墨西,哥,哥是,美,美国,的,的第,一,一大,和,和第,三,三大,贸,贸易,伙,伙伴,。,。为,什,什么,加,加拿,大,大和,墨,墨西,哥,哥并,非,非大,国,国，,但,但却,与,与美,国,国有,着,着这,么,么高,的,的贸,易,易量,呢,呢？,3,第一,节,节,全,全,球,球贸,易,易一,体,体化,几个,问,问题,：,：贸,易,易的,全,全球,一,一体,化,化、,生,生产,的,的地,区,区分,工,工化,、,、世,界,界各,主,主要,国,国家,特,特别,是,是中,美,美两,大,大国,的,的国,际,际贸,易,易情,况,况,四个,方,方面,：,：物,品,品和,服,服务,跨,跨境,的,的流,动,动、,人,人力,和,和公,司,司的,流,流动,、,、跨,国,国之,间,间文,化,化和,思,思想,的,的传,播,播、,金,金融,市,市场,的,的紧,密,密联,系,系,本节,主,主要,关,关注,的,的是,第,第一,项,项,-,物品,和,和服,务,务跨,境,境的,流,流动,4,第一,节,节,全,全,球,球贸,易,易一,体,体化,贸易,开,开放,度,度的,衡,衡量,贸易,开,开放,度,度：,一,一国,进,进口,和,和出,口,口总,额,额与,GDP,的比,率,率,中国,情,情况,：,：经,过,过三,十,十年,的,的改,革,革开,放,放，,中,中国,已,已是,一,一个,贸,贸易,大,大国,，,，在,2008,年的,金,金融,危,危机,以,以前,，,，,2007,年中,国,国的,贸,贸易,开,开放,度,度甚,至,至达,到,到,73%,，今,天,天由,于,于受,到,到金,融,融危,机,机的,影,影响,，,，外,需,需疲,软,软，,开,开放,度,度有,所,所下,降,降，,但,但开,放,放度,依,依然,超,超过,50%,。,主要,工,工业,国,国二,战,战以,来,来的,主,主要,开,开放,度,度情,况,况：,5,第一,节,节,全,全,球,球贸,易,易一,体,体化,注：,除,除却,以,以下,提,提到,的,的，,开,开放,度,度以,进,进口,和,和出,口,口的,均,均值,衡,衡量,。,。澳,大,大利,亚,亚,2010,年纪,录,录的,数,数据,使,使用,的,的是,2008,年数,据,据。,来源,：,：,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,WorldBank,进口,数,数据,来,来自,Exportsofgoodsandservices(%ofGDP),，出,口,口数,据,据来,自,自,Importsofgoodsandservices(%ofGDP),国家,1960,1970,1980,1990,2000,2010,澳大利亚,13.4,13.0,16.0,15.9,20.3,20.7,加拿大,17.6,21.0,27.2,25.7,42.7,30.1,丹麦,33.3,29.9,34.0,34.9,43.5,47.8,法国,13.5,15.7,22.2,21.9,28.3,26.6,德国,空缺,17.2,22.7,24.8,33.2,44.1,意大利,12.7,15.7,22.4,19.1,26.6,27.7,日本,10.5,10.0,14.0,9.9,10.3,14.6,挪威,36.8,37.0,40.2,37.0,38.0,35.3,瑞典,23.2,24.0,30.3,30.1,43.3,46.9,英国,20.9,21.8,25.9,25.0,28.6,31.1,美国,4.8,5.6,10.4,10.3,13.0,14.4,西方,各,各主,要,要工,业,业国,家,家贸,易,易开,放,放度,（,（百,分,分比,）,）,贸易,开,开放,度,度的,衡,衡量,6,第一,节,节,全,全,球,球贸,易,易一,体,体化,贸易,开,开放,度,度的,衡,衡量,两波,全,全球,化,化浪,潮,潮：,第,第一,波,波是,1840,年到,1914,年，,蒸,蒸汽,机,机、,铁,铁路,、,、电,报,报电,话,话的,出,出现,促,促进,了,了全,球,球化,，,，但,战,战争,和,和萧,条,条阻,挠,挠了,这,这个,进,进程,；,；第,二,二波,是,是,1945,年到,现,现在,，,，飞,机,机、,计,计算,机,机、,互,互联,网,网、,光,光纤,的,的出,现,现加,速,速了,全,全球,化,化进,程,程。,可是,，,，由,下,下图,可,可见,，,，对,英,英国,经,经济,而,而言,，,，相,对,对与,1910,年，,国,国际,贸,贸易,只,只是,最,最近,几,几十,年,年才,变,变得,重,重要,。,。对,美,美国,而,而言,，,，二,战,战后,美,美国,的,的国,际,际贸,易,易开,放,放度,甚,甚至,也,也比,不,不上,它,它在,一,一战,前,前的,情,情况,。,。,问题,出,出在,哪,哪里,？,？,7,第,一,一,节,节,全,全,球,球,贸,贸,易,易,一,一,体,体,化,化,贸,易,易,开,开,放,放,度,度,的,的,衡,衡,量,量,注,意,意,：,：,如,如,果,果,把,把,贸,贸,易,易,与,与,GDP,的,比,比,改,改,为,为,贸,贸,易,易,与,与,GDP,减,去,去,劳,劳,务,务,后,后,的,的,值,值,，,，,我,我,们,们,可,可,以,以,看,看,到,到,更,更,明,明,显,显,的,的,趋,趋,势,势,。,。,来,源,源,：,：,RichardE.BaldwinandPhillipeMartin,“,“TwoWavesofGlobalization;SuperficialSimilarities,FundamentalDifferences,”,”inHorstSiebert,ed.,GlobalizationandLabor(Tubingen:Mohr,1999),8,第,一,一,节,节,全,全,球,球,贸,贸,易,易,一,一,体,体,化,化,贸,易,易,开,开,放,放,度,度,的,的,衡,衡,量,量,问,题,题,在,在,于,于,衡,衡,量,量,本,本,身,身,。,。,用,用,进,进,出,出,口,口,额,额,与,与,GDP,的,比,比,率,率,来,来,衡,衡,量,量,“,“,开,开,放,放,度,度,”,”,忽,忽,略,略,了,了,一,一,些,些,重,重,要,要,的,的,事,事,实,实,。,。,正,如,如,美,美,国,国,加,加,州,州,大,大,学,学,著,著,名,名,的,的,国,国,际,际,贸,贸,易,易,经,经,济,济,学,学,家,家,RobertFeenstra,教,授,授,指,指,出,