DEMATEL方法介绍

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,De,cision,ma,king,t,rial and,e,valuation,l,aboratory,DEMATEL,2010,暑期培训班 张文力,1,References,S.M.Seyed-Hosseini*,N.Safaei,M.J.Asgharpour,Tongji University,吉林大学,长春理工大学,2,DEMATEL,起源？,时间：,November 2005,作者：,S.M.Seyed-Hosseini*,N.Safaei,M.J.Asgharpour,Iran,发表：,RELIABILITY ENGINEERING,&SYSTEM SAFETY,名称：,Reprioritization of failures in a system failure mode and effects analysis,decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique,3,DEMATEL,中文,:,决策试行与评价实验室。,an effective approach for analyzing,relation between components of a system,in respect to its,type,(direct/indirect)and,severity,它是进行,因素分析与识别,的一种有效的方法。例,1,一种运用,图论与矩阵工具,进行系统因素分析的方法，是通过系统中,各因素之间的逻辑关系与直接影响矩阵,，计算出每个因素对其他因素的影响程度以及被影响度，从而计算出每个因素的中心度与原因度。,这种方法是充分利用,专家,的经验和知识来处理复杂的社会问题，尤其对那些,要素关系不确定,的系统更为有效。,DEMATEL,是什么？,下一页,4,归根到底,DEMATEL,是对,(1),失效模型,failure mode and effects analysis,(2),影响因素,(3),决策标准,排序！,DEMATEL,诞生的原因，见文章,1,见例,1,C1,C2,C3,C4,A1,X,X,X,X,A2,X,X,X,X,A3,X,X,X,X,传统的多目标决策矩阵：看各个标准之间的关系,排序之后可以做什么,?,例如,(1),应该更关注哪个失效模型,?,(2),哪个影响因素对公司的业绩影响最大,?,(3),怎样给决策标准赋予权重,?,5,DEMATEL,输入什么，得到什么,?i,例,1,：怎样培养一个好学生？,(1),专家说,四大因素,:A,自身努力，,B,家庭因素，,C,学校因素，,D,社会因素,(2),专家说,各要素之间的关系,传统方法是否考虑了各因素之间的关系,?,A,D,C,B,哪个因素更重要,?,5,4,3,2,1,观察：,B,A:,家庭因素直接影响一个人的努力程度,DA:,社会因素直接影响一个人的努力程度,D,B,A,：社会因素通过影响家庭，最终影响个人努力程度,不仅有直接关系还有间接关系,6,(3),我们通过,(2),得到一个矩阵,:,直接影响,矩阵,M,DEMATEL,输入什么，得到什么,?ii,A,D,C,B,5,4,3,2,1,A,B,C,D,A,0,0,0,0,B,5,0,0,0,C,4,0,0,0,D,3,2,1,0,注意用词！,(4),把,(3),中得到的矩阵标准化，得到矩阵,M,A,B,C,D,A,0,0,0,0,B,1,0,0,0,C,0.8,0,0,0,D,0.6,0.4,0.2,0,怎样标准化？文章,1,7,DEMATEL,输入什么，得到什么,?iii,(5),通过一系列计算得到,综合影响,矩阵,M,A,B,C,D,A,0,0,0,0,B,1,0,0,0,C,0.8,0,0,0,D,0.56,0.4,0.2,0,每行元素分别求和,每列元素分别求和,A,B,C,D,A,0,0,0,0,0.00,B,1,0,0,0,1.00,C,0.8,0,0,0,0.80,D,0.56,0.4,0.2,0,1.16,2.36,0.4,0.2,0,R,C,R+C,R-C,A,0,2.36,2.36,-2,B,1,0.4,1.4,0.6,C,0.8,0.2,1,0.6,D,1.16,0,1.16,1.2,最后根据,R+C,或者,R-C,对,ABCD,排序,注意用词！,R+C,或者,R-C,的具体含义？,8,问题：,(1)DEMATEL,为什么诞生？,(2),中间的计算过程？,(3),排序的依据？,(4)DEMATEL,的优点？,文章,1,逐一解答,9,Reprioritization of failures in a system,failure mode and effects analysis,decision making trial and evaluation laboratory technique,作者：,S.M.Seyed-Hosseini*,N.Safaei,M.J.Asgharpour,Industrial Engineering Department,Iran University of Science and Technology,Narmak,Tehran,16844,Iran,Available online 10 November 2005,发表：,RELIABILITY ENGINEERING,&SYSTEM SAFETY,最早提出,dematel,失效模式与影响分析,10,综述：,研究意义（为什么？）,some of inherently shortcomings of conventional Risk Priority Number(RPN)method and like.,失效模式与影响分析这个领域传统的,RPN,方法存在一定缺陷。,研究目的（做什么？）,an effective methodology related to decision making eld has been developed for,reprioritization of failure modes,in a system,Failure Mode and Effects Analysis,(FMEA)for corrective actions.,优化失效模式与影响分析中失效模式的,顺序,用来纠正偏差,.,研究内容（怎么做？）,Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL),analyzing,relation,between components of a system in respect to its type(direct/indirect)and severity.,分析各元素之间直接,+,间接的关系,研究结果,The demonstrated results have shown that DEMATEL method can be an,efcient,complementary and condent,approach for reprioritization of failure modes in a FMEA.,有效、完备、可信,11,背景知识：失效模式与影响分析,-,FMEA,起源：,1960,，航空工业。研究系统中每一个组成部分,可能的失效模式,，确定各个失效模式的,后果,或对系统可靠性的影响，并按其影响的,严重程度,进行分类的分析方法。,用途：某个系统对可靠性和安全性要求很高。,预防错误发生,+,及时纠错,(1)what might go wrong?,什么地方可能出问题,(2)What might cause it to wrong?,什么原因引起的,(3)And what effect would it have?,会造成怎样的影响,12,传统的,FMEA,分析方法,RPN,risk priority number,风险优先数,Traditionally,the prioritization of failures for corrective actions is performed by eveloping a,risk priority number,(Ford Motor Company,1988).,传统,对错误排序,的方法,RPN Number=S*O*D,依据这个值的大小来排序,S,：,severity of its failure effect,严重性,O,：,probability of the failure-mode occurrence,可能性,D,：,probability of the failure being detected,被发现的可能性,下一页 例子,13,RPN,打分：,S,O,D,14,RPN,的缺点,(1)the RPN elements are,not equally weighted,with respect to one another in terms of risk.,(2)the RPN scale itself has some,non-intuitive statistical properties.,DEMATEL,诞生！,例如：,A:RPN,9,X3X2=54,B:RPN 4X5X6=120,A,一旦发生就会产生严重后果，应该优先处理，但是,RPN,值很小,平均值是,166,不是,500,中点不在,500,有,1000,种可能的,RPN,值，实际上只有,120,种,15,DEMATEL methodology i,16,DEMATEL methodology ii,各行求和，找最大，此处,10,17,DEMATEL methodology iii,有证明不详讲，计算过程下一页,含义,；,(1)B,到,E,有一条直接或者间接通路,(2),B,对,E,施加影响，影响因子,0.098,失效模式与影响,(3)B,与,E,的重要程度，,B,比,E,重要,0.098,决策标准,18,M,计算过程,excel,1,0,0,0,0,-0.4,1,-0.2,-0.4,0,0,0,1,-0.3,0,0,0,-0.2,1,-0.2,-0.1,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.41,1,0.3,0.49,0.1,0.01,0,1.06,0.32,0.06,0.02,0,0.21,1.06,0.21,0.1,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0.4,0,0.2,0.4,0,0,0,0,0.3,0,0,0,0.2,0,0.2,0.1,0,0,0,0,0.000,0.000,0.000,0.000,0.000,0.410,0.000,0.298,0.489,0.098,0.006,0.000,0.064,0.319,0.064,0.021,0.000,0.213,0.064,0.213,0.100,0.000,0.000,0.000,0.000,M=,E-M=,(E-M)-1=,M*(E-M)-1=,19,DEMATEL methodology iv,R+C,和,R-C,的含义，下一页,20,DEMATEL methodology v,R,C,R+C,R-C,的含义：,R+C,：,degree of,relation between each alternative with others,and alternatives having more values of R+C have more relationship with another and those having little values of R+C have litter relationship with others.,与其他元素的,关系,，值越大，关系越密切。,R-C,：,indicates,seve