(精品)公司金融课件chap004

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,4-,*,Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth,Key Concepts and Skills,Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated,Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach,Understand the four major decision areas involved in long-term financial planning,Understand how capital structure policy and dividend policy affect a firms ability to grow,Chapter Outline,What is Financial Planning?,Financial Planning Models:A First Look,The Percentage of Sales Approach,External Financing and Growth,Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models,Elements of Financial Planning,Investment in new assets determined by capital budgeting decisions,Degree of financial leverage determined by capital structure decisions,Cash paid to shareholders determined by dividend policy decisions,Liquidity requirements determined by net working capital decisions,Financial Planning Process,Planning Horizon-divide decisions into short-run decisions(usually next 12 months)and long-run decisions(usually 2 5 years),Aggregation-combine capital budgeting decisions into one big project,Assumptions and Scenarios,Make realistic assumptions about important variables,Run several scenarios where you vary the assumptions by reasonable amounts,Determine at least a worst case,normal case,and best case scenario,Role of Financial Planning,Examine interactions help management see the interactions between decisions,Explore options give management a systematic framework for exploring its opportunities,Avoid surprises help management identify possible outcomes and plan accordingly,Ensure feasibility and internal consistency help management determine if goals can be accomplished and if the various stated(and unstated)goals of the firm are consistent with one another,Financial Planning Model Ingredients,Sales Forecast many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales(often estimated using sales growth rate),Pro Forma Statements setting up the plan using projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation,Asset Requirements the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections,Financial Requirements the amount of financing needed to pay for the required assets,Plug Variable determined by management deciding what type of financing will be used to make the balance sheet balance,Economic Assumptions explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment,Example:Historical Financial Statements,Gourmet Coffee Inc.,Balance Sheet,December 31,2006,Assets,1000,Debt,400,Equity,600,Total,1000,Total,1000,Gourmet Coffee Inc.,Income Statement,For Year Ended December 31,2006,Revenues,2000,Less:costs,(1600),Net Income,400,Example:Pro Forma Income Statement,Initial Assumptions,Revenues will grow at 15%(2,000*1.15),All items are tied directly to sales and the current relationships are optimal,Consequently,all other items will also grow at 15%,Gourmet Coffee Inc.,Pro Forma Income Statement,For Year Ended 2007,Revenues,2,300,Less:costs,(1,840),Net Income,460,Example:Pro Forma Balance Sheet,Case I,Dividends are the plug variable,so equity increases at 15%,Dividends=460 NI 90 increase in equity=370,Case II,Debt is the plug variable and no dividends are paid,Debt=1,150 (600+460)=90,Repay 400 90=310 in debt,Gourmet Coffee Inc.,Pro Forma Balance Sheet,Case 1,Assets,1,150,Debt,460,Equity,690,Total,1,150,Total,1,150,Gourmet Coffee Inc.,Pro Forma Balance Sheet,Case 1,Assets,1,150,Debt,90,Equity,1,060,Total,1,150,Total,1,150,Percent of Sales Approach,Some items vary directly with sales,while others do not,Income Statement,Costs may vary directly with sales-if this is the case,then the profit margin is constant,Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with sales if this is the case,then the profit margin is not constant,Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales this affects additions to retained earnings,Balance Sheet,Initially assume all assets,including fixed,vary directly with sales,Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales,Notes payable,long-term debt and equity generally do not vary directly with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure,The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision,Example:Income Statement,Tashas Toy Emporium,Income Statement,2006,%of Sales,Sales,5,000,Less:costs,(3,000),60%,EBT,2,000,40%,Less:taxes(40%of EBT),(800),16%,Net Income,1,200,24%,Dividends,600,Add.To RE,600,Tashas Toy Emporium,Pro Forma Income Statement,2007,Sales,5,500,Less:costs,(3,300),EBT,2,200,Less:taxes,(880),Net Income,1,320,Dividends,660,Add.To RE,660,Assume Sales grow at 10%,Dividend Payout Rate=50%,Example:Balance Sheet,Tashas Toy Emporium Balance Sheet,Current,%of Sales,Pro Forma,Current,%of Sales,Pro Forma,ASSETS,Liabilities&Owners Equi