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案例：,Sport Obermeyer,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,西北工业,大学管理学院,MBA,教育中心,Sport Obermeyer,黄辉,内容提要,案例介绍,案例目的,案例问题,案例分析,内容提要,案例介绍,案例目的,案例问题,案例分析,公司介绍,一家高端的时尚滑雪衣设计和生产商；,总部位于,Aspen,Colorado；,向商店和滑雪衣专卖店销售滑雪衣；,供应链的网络涉及了美国总部、中国大陆制造、香港制造、日本采购、德国采购和韩国采购；,Obersport,是,一家位于香港的合资企业，合资的双方为,Sport Obermeyer,和香港投资方。协调,Sport Obermeyer,在,远东地区的生产。,Sport Obermeyer,Ltd,公司历史,Sport Obermeyer,建立于,1947,年，生产功能型滑雪衣：滑雪外套、,滑雪内衣、滑雪套装、滑雪套衫、滑雪库等等；,1950,s,推出鹅绒背心、,1980,s,推出滑雪闸；,$32.8,男装市场,45%,童装市场,11%的成年人市场；,定位于中高端的市场，高价、低生产数量。,公司的产品,性别:,Men,women,boy,girl,preschoolers,产品:外衣,运动衫,套领,衣（滑雪专用的）,式样:,Gail,Isis,Entice。,颜色,型号,需求倾向如图表,3。,公司的订单周期（93-94）,2/92,Design,3/92,Vegas Show,5/92,Final Concept,7/92,Sketches to Obersport,9/92,Final Design,11/92,1,st,Order placed,3/93,Vegas Show and 2,nd,Order placed,4-5-6/93,Retailer Orders received,8/93,Full Scale Production,Delivery of Orders,4/94,Sales,Sales,Discounts,Sales in South America,Replenishment orders,from retailers,订购批量和时间,Obermeyer,分,两次下订单（50%-50%）；,第一次是销售季节前约10个月；,第二次是,Vegas,展览后,销售季节前6 个月；,图表,5,是需求不确定性的解释；,Vegas,展览后能收到约占其年产量80%的订单，然后,Obermeyer,就可以预测其需求预测的准确性。,纺织与配件供应,纺织与配件供应,成衣制造,成衣制造,Obersport,Sport,Obermeyer,零售商,零售商,零售商,供应链,录像片段,内容提要,案例介绍,案例目的,案例问题,案例分析,案例分析的目的,供应链网络描述分析,供应链设计,Newsvendor Model,精准反应（,Accurate Response）,生产能力分配,内容提要,案例介绍,案例目的,案例问题,案例分析,案例讨论问题,-,Using the sample data given in Exhibit 10,make a recommendation for how many units of each style Wally Obermeyer should order during the initial phase of production.Assume that all ten styles in the sample problem are made in Hong Kong,and that Obermeyers initial production commitment must be at least 10,000 units.(Ignore price differences among styles in your initial analysis.),-What operational changes would you recommend to Wally to improve performance?,-How should Obermeyer management think(both short-term and long-term)about sourcing in Hong Kong versus China?,内容提要,案例介绍,案例目的,案例问题,案例分析,短生命周期产品的计划,需求预测非常难，计划具有挑战性；,由于需求与供应不相符合，,Obermeyer,经受了,stock outs,和,markdowns,的成本；,有什么方法可以采用,：,Speculative production capacity,-,reactive production capacity,.,Risk based production sequencing:Use speculative capacity for low risk products and postpone the production of high risk products.,Marketing Driven（Esprit）,小组需求预测,应该订购多少？,News vendor Model?,If not,how can this be made a standard new vendor problem?,基于风险的生产计划,Risk Based Production Sequencing,Safe styles first,risky styles later on,Contributors of risk:,Demand uncertainty,最小订购批量与损失成本的关系,=,最小订购批量,降低最小订购批量,Cellular production system to cut down set up times,Each Chinese line employs 40 workers,the same number is 10-12 in Hong Kong,In spite of lower productivity of a worker in China(12 vs.19 parkas per worker),a Chinese line produces more than twice the number of parkas produced in Hong Kong.,Facilities stabilize production for about two weeks.This corresponds to a lot size of 1200 in China and 600 in Hong Kong.,Increase Chinese workers flexibility to cut down the number of workers per line in China.,提高反应型生产能力,How does,stockout,and markdown costs vary with reactive production capacity?,Why there is a diminishing rate of return?,Increase Reactive Capacity by,Over time during peak season,effect on Hong Kong work force?,Subcontractor capacity.,Increase Total Capacity,what to do with extra capacity off season?,Decrease Lead Times,Cut raw material lead times,currently 3 months,Stock raw materials,Redesign to use same zippers over different parkas,component commonality,Early Market Information,公司的实际做法与结果,Fisher,Marshall L.,Hammond,Janice H.,and Obermeyer,Walter R.,“Making Supply Meet Demand in an Uncertain World.”,Harvard Business Review,May/June 1994:87-90.,思考与讨论：,Issues:,Literature,Fisher,Marshall L.,Hammond,Janice H.,and Obermeyer,Walter R.“Making Supply Meet Demand in an Uncertain World.”,Harvard Business Review,May/June 1994:87-90.,Fisher,Marshall L.“What is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?”,Harvard Business Review,March/April 1997:105-116.,Hau,L.Lee.“Creating Value Through Supply Chain Integration.”,Supply Chain Management Review,September/October 2000.5 April 2001,More and More .,
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