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单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,2021/2/8,#,STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET:TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS,Real Tech Conference,Peter Stanger,E-COMMERCE IS DEAD,“E-Commerce Is Dead,Long Live E-Commerce”,The Industry Standard,April 2000,“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”,F,April 2000,“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods?The answer is no,even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”,Bryan Rutbert,Warburg Dillon Read,“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures.Look at A-if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”,Warren Packard,Draper Fisher Jurvetson,TOM SIEBELCEO,Siebel Systems,“If you cant generate profits,significant market share and customer satisfaction,you re out of business.”,“On the B2B exchange side,I dont think anyone will survive.They are all gone.”,THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG,Travelocity,B,Expedia,D,E,Priceline,eBay,Amazon,$123B,Webvan,eBay,Amazon,All Other,$11.4B,IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?,July 28,1794,THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS,1860-1890,1895-1925,FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK,120,100,80,40,60,20,0,1770,1780,1775,Index,Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton,England 1770-83,Price of the Model T touring car,1908-20,1910,1915,1920,1985,1990,1995,Price of CPU,computing power,$/,MIPS,1982-95,Lower processing costs.,with increased throughput.,Fiber capacity,Time,10,5,0,10,4,10,3,10,2,and powerful network economics,0,20,40,60,80,100,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,n,Value increases as the square of connections,Profit,Loss,Value,Cost,0,2v,6v,12v,20v,30v,42v,56v,72v,90v,n(n-1)v,F+0,F+2c,F+3c,F+4c,F+5c,F+6c,F+7c,F+8c,F+9c,F+10c,F+,nc,Value,cost,Connections,Cost increases linearly with connections,lower storage costs.,$/MB,Average,HD size,in PC at,retail,(GB),Harddrive,size,(GB),Cost($/MB),LONG DISTANCE,Wholesale(Network),Design/build,Operations/maintenance,Resale/interconnection,Retail,Sales/marketing,Account management,Billing,Retail,Sales/marketing,Account management,Billing,Network,Design/build,Operations/maintenance,Resale/interconnection,Retail,Retail,Network intelligence,Value added services,Wholesale service creation,Network intelligence,Value added services,Network management/dispatch,Wholesale,PHARMACEUTICALS,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-,turing,Sales&marketing,Increased development costs,Role of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers available,Easier coordination,1980s,1990s,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-,turing,Sales&marketing,Academic labs,Biotech firms,Contract research organizations,Contractmfrs,PBMs,JVs/,licensing,ELECTRIC UTILITIES,COMPUTER INDUSTRY,AT&T,MCI and Sprint,fragmented radically,Microprocessors,integrated circuits,memory chips,Computers,Operating systems,Applications software,Marketing,sales,and distribution,Common standards,Time based competition,1995,Intel,Motorola,AMD,Cyrix,Compaq,Dell,Apple,Packard Bell,IBM,DOS and Windows,UNIX,Mac OS,OS/2,Microsoft Office,WordPerfect,Others,Retail,Superstores,On-line,Mail order,NeXt,IBM,Digital,1997,Primary,fuel,Power,generation,Trading,Distribution,Backward integration to reduce risk,Forward integration to open supply channels,Scale through focusing on huge power plants,Synergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy business,New services for the customer,Ruhrkohle,Mobil,BP,Shell,National Power,(UK),Electrobel,(Belgium),RWE(Germany),Norsk Kraftmegling(Norway),Enron,United Utilities,(UK),South-,ern,Water,Eastern Elect-ricity(UK),Stadt-,werke,Munch-,en(Ger-,many),1990,1995,1985,1990,Statkraft,(Norway),Oslo Energi(Norway),EVO(Germany),IVO,(Finland),MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES,MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURING,Digital Photography Example,Camera,Film,Equipment,Paper,chemicals,Photo-finisher,Reprint/enlarge,Store/display,Share with others,Processing,Analog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominate,Major players(2000 U.S.market share),Canon,Nikon,Olympus,Minolta,Kodak,Fuji,Kodak(66%),Fuji,Kodak(Qualex)(40%),Fuji,Photohuts,Album manufacturers,Frame manufacturers,Mail services,disposables,Camera,Manipulation,Crop,Alter pixels,Printer,Paper,ink,Reprint/enlarge,Store/,display,Share with others,Processing(at home),Digital value chain HP,Sony and others well-positioned,Major players(2000 U.S.market share),Sony(35%),HP(19%),Olympus(13%),Kodak(12%),HP(70%),Lexmark,Epson,HP,Lexmark,Epson,Kodak,PC,IBM microdrive,Sony,Compact Flash,E-mail posting,Personal Web site,Zing,Shutterfly,Snapfish,Ofoto,Others,Adobe(Photoshop),Standard with camera and available free online,EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES,65.1,17.8,Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0 and 4.0,Shop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group;SEC filings;Media Metrix,and Harris Interactive data;industry association reports;analyst reports,Note:Excludes financial brokerage,11.5,15.2,North American,Business-to-,Con
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