电化学储能行业商业模式及经济性分析(2021年)课件

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,#,目录,商业模式逐渐清晰,经济性拐点打响装机发令枪,储能可用于电力系统全环节,备电时长差异导致统一口径的成本评价较为困难,用电侧:度电成本约,0.51,元,/,K,W,H,,工商业,/,大工业场景具备套利空间,输配电侧:里程成本约,3.93,元,/MW,,电力辅助服务市场具备盈利空间,发电侧:强制性配套政策叠加经济性拐点,新能源侧储能装机持续高增,电力市场改革加速,储能真实价值有望体现,1,目录商业模式逐渐清晰,经济性拐点打响装机发令枪1,商业模式逐渐清晰,经济性拐点打响装机发令枪,1,储能可用于电力系统全环节,备电时长差异导致统一口径的成 本评,价,较为困难,储能,可,应用,于,电,力,系统,发电,侧、,输,配电,侧,、,用,电侧,全环,节,。,电力系,统,一般分,为,发电,侧,、,输,配电,侧,和用,电侧,,,储能在,三,个环,节,均有,应用,。,在发电,侧,,,储,能,主要,用,于,电,力调,峰,、,辅助,动,态,运行,、,系,统调,频,、,可,再生能,源,并网,等,;,在,输,配电,侧,,,储,能,主要,用,于缓,解,电网,阻塞,、,延,缓输,配,电,设,备扩,容,升级,等,;,在,用电,侧,,,储能,主,要用,于,电,力,自发自,用,、,峰,谷,价差,套利,、,容量电,费,管理,和,提,升,供电,可,靠性,等,。,表,1,5,:,电,力系统,储,能主,要,用途,应用场景主要用途具体说明,电力调峰,通过储,能,的方,式,实现,用,电负,荷,的,削,峰填谷,,,即发,电,厂在,用,电负,荷,低,谷,时段对,电,池充,电,在,用,电负,荷,高峰,时,段将,存,储,的,电量释,放,。,辅助动,态,运行,以,储,能,+,传,统,机组联,合,运行的,方,式,,提,供辅助,动,态运行,、,提高传,统,机组,运,行效,率,、,延缓新,建,机组,的,功效。,发电侧,系统调频,频率的,变,化会,对,发电,及,用电,设,备,的,安全高,效,运行,及,寿命,产,生影,响,,,因,此频率,调,节至,关重,要,。,储,能,(,特,别是,电,化学,储能,),调,频,速度,快,,,可,以灵,活,地在,充放,电状态,之,间转 换,因,而,成为,优,质的,调,频资,源,。,备用容量,备用容,量,是指,在,满足,预,计负,荷,需,求,以外,,,针,对突,发,情况,时,为保,障,电,能,质量和,系,统安,全稳定,运,行而,预,留的,有,功功,率,储,备,。,集中式,可,再生 能源并网,(,1,),平,滑,可,再,生能,源,发电,出,力。,通,过在,风,、,光,电站,配,置储,能,,基于,电,站出,力,预测,和储能,充,放电,调,度,,,对,随,机性,、,间,歇性和,波,动性,的,可再,生,能源,发,电,出,力进行,平,滑控 制,,,满,足并,网,要,求,。,(,2,),减少,弃风,弃光,。,将可,再,生能,源,的弃,风,弃光,电,量存储,后,再移 至其他,时,段进,行,并网,,,提高,可,再,生,能源利,用,率。,2,输配电侧,缓解电,网,阻塞,将储能,系,统安,装,在线,路,上游,,,当,发,生线路,阻,塞时,可,以将,无,法输,送,的,电,能储存,到,储能 设备中,,,等到,线,路负,荷,小于,线,路,容,量时,,储,能系,统,再向,线,路放,电,。,延缓输,配,电设,备扩容,升,级,在负荷,接,近设,备,容量,的,输配,电,系,统,内,,,可,以,利用,储,能系,统,通过,较,小,的,装机容,量,有效,提高电,网,的输,配,电能,力,,从,而,延,缓,新建输,配,电设,施,,降,低,成本。,用电侧,电力自,发,自用,对于安,装,光伏,的,家庭,和,工商,业,用,户,,,考虑到,光,伏在,白,天发电,,,而,用,户,一般在,夜,间负,荷较高,,,通过,配,置储,能,可以,更,好,地,利用光,伏,电力,,,提高,自,发自,用,水,平,,,降低,用,电成 本。,峰谷价,差,套利,在实施,峰,谷电,价,的电,力,市场中,,,通,过低电,价,时给,储,能系,统,充电,,,高电,价时储,能,系统,放电,,实,现峰,谷,电价,差,套利,,,降,低,用电成,本,。,容量费,用,管理,工业用,户,可以,利,用储,能,系统,在,用,电,低谷时,储,能,,,在,高,峰负,荷,时放电,,,从而降,低,整体,负荷,,达,到降,低,容量,电,费的,目,的。,提升供,电,可靠性,发生停,电,故障时,,,储能,能,够将,储备,的能量,供,应给,终,端用户,,,避免,了故,障修复,过,程中,的电能,中,断,,以,保证,供,电可,靠,性。,容量单位与功率单位的不统一,使得单位成本对备电时长非常敏感,统一口径的成本评,价较为困难。,在传统发电技术及电气部件中,我们通常采用功率单位(如,MW,)来表征系统 的大小,但在储能系统中,主要采用容量单位(如,MWh,)来表征系统的大小。这种差异直接 导致了储能系统的单位成本对备电时长非常敏感,,,因为电池一般采用容量单位,,,即单位容量的,商业模式逐渐清晰,经济性拐点打响装机发令枪储能可应用于电力系,电,池成,本,不变,;,而其,他,成本,采,用功,率,单位,,,因此,储,能系,统,总容,量,越大,,,分摊,至,单位,容,量的,其,他,成,本就,越,低。,根,据美,国,可再,生,能源,国,家实,验,室,(,NREL,),,同,样,为,60MW,的,储能系,统,,备,电,时 长,0.5,小,时与,4,小,时的,系,统,单,位成,本,相差,1.4,倍,。,因此,,,由于,不,同项,目,的备,电,时长,差,异,,市,场,上,暂时,没,有统,一,口径,的,成本,评,价方,式,。,图,20:,不,同容量,60MW,储能,系统成本,对,比(美,元,/kWh,),2,用,电侧:度电成本约,0.51,元,/kWh,,工商业,/,大工业场景具,备,套,利 空间,两充两,放,通常,为,工商,业,/,大,工业套,利,场景,的,运行,策,略,,一,般,配,置,时长,约,3,小,时。,不,同,地区,的,峰谷,时,段差,异,较,大,,,一,般,情,况下,划,分为,5-6,个,时段,,,其,中,2,个,高,峰,,,2-3,个,平,段,,,1,个,低,谷。,高,峰一,般,持续,时,长约,2-3,小,时,,,2,个,高峰,间,夹杂一个,2-3,小时,的,平段,。,综合,来,看,,一,般工,商,业,及,大工,业,储能,的,运行,策,略为,两,充两,放,,,其,中,一充,一,放在,低,谷高,峰,,,一,充,一放,在,平段,高峰,;,不,同,地,区峰,谷,时段,不,同,,一,般考,虑,配置,时,长,3,小,时。,图,21:,部,分省份,1-10kV,大工,业,用,电,峰,谷时段,(,元,/kWh,),3,电池成本不变;而其他成本采用功率单位,因此储能系统总容量越大,全国工,商,业、,大,工业,峰,谷,价,差中位,数,分别,约,0.49,、,0.54,元,/kWh,。,当,前,我国,用,户侧,(,主要,是,工商,业,用户,),主要,利,用储,能,进行,峰,谷价,差,套利,和,容量,费,用管,理,。,根,据,北极,星,售电网,,,近,期,各,地,陆续,明,确,2021,年,销售电,价,,,截止,2020,年,12,月底已有,26,个地,区,发布,新,版销售,电,价,表,,,其中,15,个地,区,制定,了,峰谷,分,时电,价,,,工,商业,及,其他,峰,谷价差,平,均值约,0.51-0.55,元,/kWh,,,中,位,值约,0.48-0.52,元,/kWh,,,其,中北京,是,峰谷,价,差最,大,的地区,,,达到,0.99-1.00,元,/kWh,;,大,工,业,峰谷,价,差,平,均,值,约,0.55-0.59,元,/kWh,,中位,值,约,0.53-0.56,元,/kWh,,,其,中上,海,是峰,谷,价差最,大,的地,区,,,夏,季达到,0.81-0.83,元,/kWh,。,对,比上,一,轮销,售,电价,,,江苏,、,浙江,、,安,徽,峰谷,价,差拉,大,约,2,分,钱。,表,1,6,:,全,国各省,市,工商,业,及其,他,峰谷,电,价汇总,表,(,元,/,k,Wh,),不满,1kV,1-10kV,35kV,省市,峰,平,谷,价差,加权,峰,平,谷,价差,加权,峰,平,谷,价差,加权,北京,1.2930,0.7673,0.2939,0.9991,0.7624,1.2710,0.7523,0.2849,0.9861,0.7524,1.2560,0.7373,0.2699,0.9861,0.7524,江苏,1.1141,0.6664,0.2987,0.8154,0.6316,1.0724,0.6414,0.2904,0.7820,0.6065,1.0307,0.6164,0.2821,0.7486,0.5815,上海(,两,部制,,,夏季),0.9400,0.5910,0.2180,0.7220,0.5355,0.9160,0.5670,0.2130,0.7030,0.5260,0.8910,0.5420,0.2080,0.6830,0.5160,上海(,两,部制,,,非夏季),0.9120,0.5620,0.2700,0.6420,0.4960,0.8880,0.5380,0.2660,0.6220,0.4860,0.8640,0.5130,0.2610,0.6030,0.4770,山东(,单,一制),0.9203,0.6226,0.3249,0.5954,0.4466,0.8998,0.6089,0.3180,0.5818,0.4364,0.8971,0.5951,0.3111,0.5860,0.4440,山东(,两,部制),-,-,-,-,-,0.8948,0.6062,0.3177,0.5771,0.4329,0.8663,0.5872,0.3082,0.5581,0.4186,甘肃,0.8950,0.6043,0.3136,0.5814,0.4361,0.8800,0.5943,0.3086,0.5714,0.4286,0.8650,0.5843,0.3036,0.5614,0.4211,天津,1.0436,0.6768,0.3923,0.6513,0.5091,0.9441,0.6586,0.3891,0.5550,0.4203,0.8822,0.6042,0.3402,0.5420,0.4100,安徽(,单,一制),0.9389,0.6198,0.3716,0.5673,0.4432,0.9158,0.6048,0.3629,0.5529,0.4320,0.8927,0.5898,0.3542,0.5385,0.4207,安徽(,两,部制),-,-,-,-,-,0.9078,0.5996,0.3599,0.5479,0.4281,0.8693,0.5746,0.3454,0.5239,0.4093,陕西,0.8479,0.5807,0.3135,0.5344,0.4008,0.8179,0.5607,0.3035,0.5144,0.3858,0.7879,0.5407,0.2935,0.4944,0.3708,浙江,(,非,7,、,8,月),0.9014,-,0.3784,0.5230,0.5230,0.8556,-,0.3536,0.5020,0.5020,0.8373,-,0.3343,0.5030,0.5030,云南,0.7382,0.4101,0.2461,0.4921,0.4101,0.7202,0.4001,0.2401,0.4801,0.4001,0.7022,0.3901,0.2341,0.4681,0.3901,山西,0.7667,0.5309,0.3116,0.4551,0.3455,0.7367,0.5109,0.3009,0.4358,0.3308,0.7142,0.4959,0.2929,0.4213,0.3198,上海(,单,一制
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