从市场经济到和谐社会——中国城乡二元结构体制下的经济发展与制度变迁

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,从市场经济到和谐社会中国城乡二元结构体制下的经济开展与制度变迁Chinas Economic Development & Institutional Transition Under the Typical Dual System,温铁军,Prof. Wen Tiejun,wentj,中国人民大学,Renmin University of China,86-10-62511063 (Secretary),.,Montepulciano, Siena, Italy,内 容,1、中国的主要制度经验,2、中国农村根本制度常识,3、集体化：在国家工业化形成的二元结构体制下的,资本原始积累,4、中国农村改革的条件和措施,5、中国农村当前的根本形势,6、和谐社会：可持续开展的政策调整,中国的经济地理鸟瞰Bird View of China Economic landscape,资源约束下的差异拉大：,水土资源匹配的平原面积仅占1/8, 主要集中在沿海地区, 工农业经济和城市也集中在沿海平原；区域差异必然拉大，沿海城市地价必然上升。,Natural Resources Constrains & Regional Gap Enlarged,The plain is only 12% of total territory, so that the agriculture, industry and city can only be hustled in coastal areas made land/labor price went high,问题：中国生存与开展的硬条件约束The Problems: Hardest Constrains of Chinas Human Security,中国大陆主要农产品产量在世界上的地位1997,项 目 粮食 棉花 油料 糖料 肉类 蛋类 奶类 水产品,总产量/万吨 44350 460 2157 9386 5152 2125 780 3602,产量占世界,的份额% 21 23 22 6 23 41 1 30,在世界上的位次 1 1 2 3 1 1 15 1,人均占有量/千克 367.8 3.8 17.9 77.8 42.7 17.6 6.5 29.9,人均占有量为世界,平均水平的倍数 1 1.1 0.3 1.2 0.99 1.4,1、中国的主要制度经验 Part 1. Chinas Major Institutional experience,中国是所有大型开展中国家中长期维持社会稳定的国家。除了1960-62年由于重新启动以地方为主的“再工业化、同时必须归还俄国对中央政府工业化投入形成的债务，导致过多从农村提取原始积累造成过严重饥饿的事件之外，中国长期保持没有成规模饥饿的纪录 China is the only one biggest population country has long time social stability with no hunger among the 3rd world countries, except 196062s nation wide hunger caused by more exploitation for local primary accumulations of re-industrializations, also more export for paying back Russian debts for central industrialization.,中国其实是在无条件实现并根本放弃了农业现代化制度、全面恢复了小农经济之后，才实现了以7% 的耕地养活22%的人口，以及大幅度减贫 China abandoned impossible agri modernization strategy by 1980s rural reform with regenerating traditional small households agri., than gained the success of feeding 22% world population by 7% arable land, and contributed 67% of world poverty reduction,未来的不确定性：劳动力预测,Uncertainty: Labour force prediction,劳动力总量2021年到达峰值，2030年以后显著下降 Absolute number of labour force will reduce from 2030,中国的大规模失业问题可能发生在2021-2021年期间 China will meet the most serious un-employment problem since 2021-2021,未来20年内农村劳动力占比1/2，分散小农户难以形成农业比较优势Rural labour would remain as a half of total for next 20years, so that scattered farming must be no comparative advantage in next 20 years,Sources: China statistical yearbooks,2020年老龄人口超过15%,Strong labor resource through 2020：,aging population 15%,Aging population to labour force,n,Labour supply,remains as China,s,comparative,advantage through,2020-,n,Relatively,-,well,-,educated labour with,low cost is the source,of profit and growth,Sources:,China statistical yearbooks,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,1995,2000,2020,2025,(%),World,China,向市场经济转轨：什么“化？什么“主义Market Oriented Transition: Whatever-zations / -isms?,开展：工业化/城市化/现代化？Development: Industrializations/ Urbanizations/ Modernizations,制度：私有化/市场化/货币化资本化？ Institution: privatization/ marketization/ monetization/ capitalization,讨论：世界上是否有任何主义/制度/政府/领袖，能够解决中国现在8亿、15年后9亿多劳动年龄人口的充分就业？Discussion: Is there anyisms/ institutions/ Gov./ political leaders in the world, can solve the unemployment problems for 800 mil. Labor age population now, or 900 mil.15 years later?,2、中国农村根本制度常识Part 2. Common Sense of Rural Institution,中国农村根本制度的主要特征 Major Institutional feature:,中国是开展中国家之中的人口过亿的大国之中唯一形成村内平均分配土地的根本制度的大陆国家；其他如印度、孟加拉、墨西哥等都没有这样的制度。China is the only one “continental country set up the primary rural institution with “families land rights of equal distribution inside of the villages, among these developing countries with population bigger than 100 mil., such as India/Bangladesh/Mexico, etc.,这种制度是在20世纪上半叶以3次土地革命战争国家独立战争形式来实现的，因此具有与国家政治建设直接相关的“政治正确；任何中国领导人，无论毛/邓/江/胡，都向农民承诺这种根本制度不变。Its the outcomes of 3 times land revolutionary war (the civil war) in upper 20th century, to put “political correct inside land institution as the legitimacy of state building, so that Mao/Deng/Jiang/Hu, whoever to be the political leader must insist unchangeable policy for satisfying the rural people,建国以来的粮食生产变动The 50 years grain production,1950年代国家工业化的困难：土地革命造成地权过于分散1950s Problem of State Industrialization: the indisposed aftermath of Succeeded “Land Revolution,农村土改之前地权与阶级的分布 Rural Land/classes distribution before 1940s land revolution,平均地权的制度本钱The Institutional Cost of “Equal Right,土地革命之后分散的自发小农经济天然与城市工业化对立,After the “Land Revolution, scattered “Autarky Rural naturally rebel “Urban Industrialization,平均地权和取消地租使农业规模经营消失 “Scale of Agri. Economy disappeared, because of equal privatizing farm land and abandoned the tenure system.,尽管分散小农经济的生产量增加，但商品粮下降使得不断增加的城市人口需求难以保障 Shortage of marketing grain troubled the enlarged urban demand, 1950s scattered small farmers average production increased per capita, meanwhile the market supply decreased.,劳动力过剩的自给自足的小农经济和较少的农村消费，严重约束国家工业化开展战略Less rural consumption slow down industrialization, surplus labor & traditional farming refuse industrial products,3、集体化：在国家工业化形成的二元结构体制下的资本原始积累 Part 3. “Collectivization: Under the Dual System forState Industrialization & Its Capital Primary Accumulation,不管是私人还是政府，也不管是任何力量以任何主义为名，都不可能绕过从农民那里提取剩余的资本原始积累来完成工业化 Either private, or government, anybody entitled “any-ism could hardly actualize the industrialization without the “Capital Primary Accumulation by depriving surplus value from rural people.,为了降低工业化的制度本钱，国家在1953年建立了农村合作社制度，随后在1956年建立了集体化制度，以便政府通过长期的工农产品剪刀差垄断占有农业剩余 参见以下图In order to reduce the institutional cost of industrialization, government set up 1953s “cooperatives, then 1956s “collectives for capitalizing resources by monopoly system of “state capitalism(graph of price scissors as below).,根本领实 ：1960-70年代中国开展了以山水田林路综合治理为主要内容的根本建设运动。政府支付局部原材料，调动农民劳动力投入建设。What China did: 1960-70s rural comprehensive reconstruction initiated by Gov. mobilizing surplus rural labor for the investment into the state infrastructures,宏观经济效果: 中国在资本稀缺条件下以大量过剩劳动力成规模地投入于根本建设，加快了国家工业化的原始积累,What China got as macro economic institutional returns：China solved the shortage capital constrains by invested large amount labor for primary accumulations for the state capitalist industrialization,中国是唯一依靠内部原始积累完成工业化的开展中国家 China is the only one successful industrialized developing country by internal primary accumulation,中国开展道路：原住民的自主工业化 Chinas Development Path: Indigents Self-relies Industrialization,中国在1980年代改革之前，主要是通过集中体制大规模使用劳动力替代稀缺资本投入，以及工农业产品的价格剪刀差提取积累；形成国家资本主义工业化的“政府公司主义体制,1980年代以后的改革，被路径依赖所制约，转制为成千上万个“地方政府公司主义仍然主要靠占有农村土地资源和劳动力剩余来促进经济增长,改革前后之最大的不同，在于此前政府主要为国家工业化提取积累；此后那么也需要为国际资本提取积累,Path Dependants in China-The Chinese way of primary accumulation for the State Capitalist industrialization since 1950s created specified institution of “Gov. Corporatism, which also impacted the period of later 1980s economic reform, turned into thousands “Local Gov. Corporatism- greedy exploiting arable land, also taking surplus of labor resource, both continue to be the main source of resent economic growth.,The difference before/after so-called institutional transition is: 1st accumulating for State capital and 2nd for Multinational capital.,中国城乡二元结构：工业化原始积累/改革阶段,The Strategic Dual System between Rural/Urban:,Double Supply for Primary Accumulation of State Industrialization,政府通过集体化,提供低本钱公共效劳,Low cost public service,高价城市工业品投入,High cost Gov. Industrial,products supply,国家工业化,State Industrialization,城市食品保障,City food security,国家根本建设,State Infrastructure,农村集,体经济负债,与农民低收入,Large Deficits &,Lower Income in,collectivization,城市经济,Urban,Economy,农村社会高度组织化,Highly Organized,Rural Society,国家工业化资本原始积累,Capital Accumulation for State Industrialzation,分散的流动劳动力,低价进入市场,scattered low income,Migrants flow into labor,Market without security,无组织的分散小农,面对高风险市场,scattered households,failed in high risk market,劳动力集中投入替代稀缺资本,Labor Intensive Investment,replaced capital shortage,农业规模种植利于,通过工农产品剪刀差,获取农业剩余,Enforce Price Scissors,For gaining agri-surplus,改革,reform,中国案例：50年经济周期趋势,Case Study: 50 years,GDP Growth & Cyclic Crisis Trend,中国50年的剪刀差增加50 Years Widen Price Scissors,工农产品剪刀差，即使在改革之后也是增加的，说明中国的城乡二元结构体制长期化 “Price Scissors, an indicator of dual system of urban/rural, widen much than before since the reform, and dual system becomes long term problem,现代化城市与传统农村之间的消费缺口也不断拉大，导致中国的内需和外部投资都难以长期维持较大幅度增加，于是形成“大中国、小市场的看法 “Big China, Small Market- the consumption gap of autarkic rural/ modernized urban has slowed down both the domestic demand and overseas investment,此外，中国经济增长的对外依存度从1994年的40%上升到2005年大于80%，内陆与沿海的区域差距也拉大到经济开展难以“可持续的地步 “Unsustainable Development-uneven economy between East and West, which push “dependency of foreign trade to GDP climb up from 40%(1994) to 80%(2005),剪刀差的解释 Explanation of the Price Scissors,怎样评价中国农村的集体化和农业现代化,Comments on rural collectivization & its agri modernization,国家工业化的制度收益：奠定中国高速度增长之根底 Institutional Returns of State Industrialization: set up the basic structure for further high growth,宏观收益：基于农村集体化制度，国家得以通过“政府公司主义缩短工业化原始积累 Macro: based on rural collectivization, state has shortened the period of primary accumulation and succeeded its “government corporatism industrialization,微观收益：基于国家对资源的直接控制和集体化能够大量发动过剩劳动力，中国得以在1950-1970年代以所谓农业的集体化制度的最低土地本钱，建设了大陆型国家最大规模的配套的水利系统 Micro: large number of agricultural infrastructure built up, by state strictly controlling resources and collectives for mobilizing cheapest rural labor. China is the only one continental country set up the largest and perfect structural irrigation system with the lowest land cost during late 1950-70s, by so- called collective ownership of rural land,农业现代化的制度本钱：农业机械和化学产品投入增加导致集体化各级生产单位严重亏损 Institutional Cost of Agri Modernization: Deficits of Agri collectives increased, caused by inputting machine and chemicals,4、中国农村改革的条件和措施Part 4. Pre-condition & Gov. Policy of Rural Reform,为什么1980年开始推进农村改革？Why the rural reform initiated in 1980?,国家完成第五个五年方案/工业化初步形成之后,政府收益主要来源于城市和工业 The state finished the 5th “5 years plan and the gov. income mainly come from city/industry,工农产品剪刀差与高价支农工业品下乡，导致农业本钱不断提高，农业集体化内部严重亏损 The cost of agriculture increased by high cost industrial products invested into Peoples Commune by Price scissors, made deficits enlarged inside collectives,农村劳动力和农业剩余被全额提取之后农村全面贫困 rural poverty become worse when gov. take more surplus from agriculture/labor,1979-1080年期间经济危机压力导致政府财政严重赤字 1979-1980s economic cyclic crisis made gov. deficit increased,中国农村改革：政府和乡村集体的“退出 Rural reform in China: Gov. & Rural Collectives Exit,1980s 政府退出农业, 导致农村经济改革 Gov. exited from Agriculture, started rural economic reform in 1980,中央政府赤字压力下大幅度减少对农业集体化的财政投入：1980年占11%，1985年低于3%；在允许农民恢复家庭经营的同时把教育医疗和基层政府开支转嫁给地方和农民 higher deficit in central forced gov. reduced agricultural investment: 11% in 1980, 3% in 1985. Peasants regain land rights and also the burdens of education, medical service and local governance,乡村集体随之退出农业生产，大局部把农村土地集体所有制改革为家庭承包制 rural collective also exited from agriculture production, allow family contract farm land,农户获得土地产权的同时，接受了集体化时期的债务Peasants take both land property and collectives debts,2004 政府进一步退出农村，导致乡村上层建筑体制全面改革 Gov. exited from rural management system, caused 2005s rural comprehensive reform in super structure,在传统小农经济根底上形成高本钱的上层建筑导致“政府退出High Cost of Transit Traditional Rural Super Structure into Modern Administrative Governance enforced government exit,中国的城市改革与“地方政府公司主义Urban reform in China & “Local Gov. Corporatism,城市改革由于政府没有退出，因此并没有参照农村平均占有财产的制度，而是少数人占有导致权力与资本结合 No Gov. exit, no equal distribution properties in urban reform, but minority control capital with power,1980年代以后的改革，被路径依赖所制约，转制为成千上万个“地方政府公司主义仍然主要靠占有农村土地资源和劳动力剩余来促进经济增长 Path Dependants in China The institution of Gov. Corporatism impacted the period of later 1980s economic reform, turned into thousands “Local Gov. Corporatism- greedy exploiting arable land, also taking surplus of labor resource, both continue to be the main source of resent economic growth.,改革前后之最大的不同，在于此前政府主要为国家工业化提取积累；此后那么也需要为国际资本提取积累 The difference before/after so-called institutional transition is: 1st accumulating for State capital and 2nd for Multinational capital.,农村改革的问题 Arguments on Rural Reform,为什么很多成功的工业化村庄坚持集体所有制，这是真的公有制吗？ Why those industrialized villages insist on the public ownership? Is it real public?,在村级工业化初期降低从村民获得土地/劳动力和资金用于原始积累的交易本钱，承诺给未来村民以类似市民的就业和福利保障 To reduced the trade cost for primary accumulation of rural industrialization inside of villages, by taking land/labor/cash from villagers with no pay but willingness of social welfares and employments in future, like citizens,进一步给村民以股权来组建股份合作制公司，这是农村再次工业化的企业形式 To give villagers shares and re-organize the industrialized rural communities into share holders cooperatives, those are the informal rural companies for local Chinas secondary industrialization,农村开展与农地制度land issues and rural development,中国农村土地所有制难道真是所谓集体所有制吗？What is the land ownership in rural China? Is it so-called collective?,以家庭为单位的成员权是一种非西方标准的私有制产权 The “family based membership rights is the informal ownership as private property right,村级组织介入土地均分制在于维持村民生存保障 The village involve equal land distribution is for the rural social security of the villagers,当前农村土地纠纷主要来自地方政府公司主义对资源的非法资本化 The problems of the land issues mainly come from “local government corporatism with illegal nature resources capitalization,5、中国农村当前的根本形势Part 5. Basic Situation in Rural China,农地资源短缺再次像50年前那样障碍农业现代化 Secondary Problems of Land resources limitation constrain the “Agri Modernization, like 1950s,50年中农村户数从1亿增加到亿；人口从4亿增加到8亿；尽管占全国人口比重从85%下降到69% Rural households number increased from 100 ml to 212 ml, population number increased from 400 ml. to 800 mil, otherwise, the percent of rural to the total population decreased: 85% to 69% in latest 50 years,农村土地1996年以后10年被城市化和工业化大量占用，从亿公顷，下降为亿公顷 Urbanization & industrialization reduced arable land from 1996s 136 mil. hr.to 2006s 122 mil. Hr.,农户平均土地规模下降，76%的农户仅有公顷 Farm Size Decrement: among these small household farms, 76% less than 0.6 hr.,改革25年农村人口/农户和劳动力数量稳升而农业份额和农业劳动力比重下降,Agri/GDP, Agri labor/Total Downgrade But, Rural Chinas Population Households Labor Stabled,中国案例：改革以来经济增长与耕地征占,Case Study:,The Background of Rapid Growth-land occupation,Urban Exploit Rural“Land Occupation much more than before since 1980s economic reform, and dual system becomes long term problem.,0,20,40,60,World Average and 4 Countries Proportion of,Plowland to Country & Per capita,耕地比重%,人均耕地亩,Plowland%,Per capitamu,World,US,China,India,Brazil,Comparative Proportion of Plowland and Per capita,(耕地比重与人均耕地比较),市场失灵：资源约束转化为更为严重的差距问题The Constrains Emerged During the “Rural Reform, and Become More Serious since 1990s,城乡/区域差距拉大造成社会不稳定 economic gap of urban/rural, east/west become lager and caused more serious instability,各种非税负担增加造成政府与农民的矛盾增加 the “non-taxation burden increased, the relationship of gov/peasants being worse gradually,农业本钱九十年代年平均增长10%，国内粮食价格有时甚至高于国际市场 the agricultural cost going up 10% in average annually in 1990s, also the domestic market grain price increased sometimes higher than overseas,农民人均纯收入和消费的增长都出现连续下降 ratio of farmers income annual increment and consumption both decreased,高达1亿以上的农村流动劳动力去兴旺城市和沿海地区打工，却没有社会保障 more than 100 million rural labor migrant into cities or coastal areas, without social welfare/insurance,Comparative Ratio of Plowland to Labor Per capita (各国劳均耕地面积比较图),中国最大的差异是城乡差异The main gap is dual system between urban & rural,Big China, Small Market- the consumption gap of autarkic rural/ modernized urban slowed down both the domestic demand and overseas investment;,贫富差异大幅度增加：基尼系数上升到2005,不同贫困标准的数据差异 Different Data of Poverty,国内标准的贫困人口比重为2.4%,Government data shows the poor reduced to 2.4%,国际标准的贫困人口比重10倍于官方数字,International standard shows 10 times higher,Average annual income (USD),Population (mil.),%,60 ($0.165/day),14.6,1.1%,75 ($0.2/day),(Gov. criteria),30.0,2.4%,120 ($0.33/day),90.3,7.1%,120-240,($0.33-0.66/day),310.8,24.5%,改革20年中央政府再分配能力下降趋势The Redistributive Capacity of the Chinese Central Government during 20 years Reform,根据世界卫生组织报告, 世界各国财富分配平均指数(2000年), 中国在世界各国的排位是第188, 仅前于巴西、缅甸和塞拉利昂。 China was ranked the 188th of “Fairness of financial contribution, according to WHO 2000 report,6、和谐社会：可持续开展的政策调整 Part 6. Shift Policy for the Sustainable Development,重大调整：新领导提出2021年实现“全面小康作为新世纪的战略目标 Comprehensive Well-life: the new millenniums strategy reset by new leaders in China,政治政策考虑 Political Policy Concerns:,在转型反思之中保持中国特色的社会制度 Maintain the Special Featured Chinas Social Regime and Economic System by alternative reflection of old ideology ,经济政策考虑 Economic Policy Concerns:,改变单纯追求GDP目标的开展模式为综合开展，重新构建有利于稳定和可持续的社会经济环境 Restructure the Social Economic Environment for Stability & Sustainability by changing GDP Target into comprehensive development ,2003提出新的经济方针科学开展观,2004提出新的政治路线构建和谐社会,2005进一步修改十一五规划,问题：上一个20年的目标是什么？与新的战略目标有什么不同吗？有政策调整的可能吗？Any alternative concerns of sustainable policies(2003-04),中国新战略：可行政策与操作试验,Chinas Alternative Policy & Experiments,2002年以后新政时期的制度建设与政策反思 Institutional building, Policy reorientation for New Authority Since 2002,国家能力建设,Participation and state building for enlarging redistributing capacity,资源开发及其收益分配,Institutions of resource extraction & its interest distribution,危机防止与冲突管理,Institutions of risk reduction, conflict reduction & management,中央地方关系与城乡协调开展,Readjustment of Central/Local and Urban/Rural,新农村建设与扩大内需,New rural constructions for expending domestic demands,中国政府的财政总收入, 1978-2005,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,中国政府财政总收入占GDP的比重1978-2005,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,社会政策的出现，1999-2007年Social policy for readjustment, 1999-2007,年份 year,新出台的社会政策 newly issued social policy,1999,西部大开发 develop west,2002,城市低保 basic security in urban,2003,支持三农、进行农村税费改革、筹建新型农村合作医疗体系 3 dimensional rural issues, rural tax reform, medical service system,2004,降低农业税、推出农村“三项补贴”rural tax reduction, aid agri,2005,部分取消农业税 eliminated agri tax partly,2006,全面取消农业税，推出农业综合补贴、免除西部地区农村义务教育学杂费，城市廉租房 comprehensive aid agri, eliminated west rural educational fees,2007,全国农村义务教育免费，全面推进新农合，全面推进廉租房，全面推进农村低保，开始推行城市全民医保 basic security for rural people, medical services for whole people,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,中央对地方财政转移支付Number of central revenue transfer to local,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,7、政府再次进入： 2006新农村建设启动,Part 7.,Gov. secondary entering: new rural reconstruction initiated in 2006,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,政府财政支农年递增超过10%，承诺保持10年；2007年到达3900亿元人民币; 预计2021年根本解决农村教育和医疗体系重建 Gov. revenue investment in rural increased more than 10% annually and promised 10 years increments, to reconstruct rural education and medical system in 2021. 2007s total will be 390 billion.,中央财政支持农村税费改革转移支付亿元Number of central transfer to rural tax reduction,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,农村定期受扶助人数 Number of basic aid rural people in China,资料来源：摘自CUHK王绍光教授2007年3月18日在韩国成均馆大学的会议论文,中国第一组农村生态建筑群,办公室/礼堂半地下温室大棚/农宅,2005年夏季设计施工，已经开始在中原农村扩大试点,The 1st group eco-architectures of YIRR built by local recycling materials in rural China (office/house/meeting hall) now more accepted by rural people.,改进案例： 中国人民大学乡村建设中心在新农村建设中发起的草根运动,Case of Reformists: NGO movement for rural regeneration, by Rural Reconstruction Center (RUC),在建的生态建筑,Rural E,co-housing,under construction,左上-高校建筑专业的学生志愿者参与生态建筑劳动,left: domestic students joint the bio-construction,右下-香港大学生志愿者参与夏收,Right: overseas students joint the harvest,Outcomes of Rural Reconstruction: Cooperative & Org. Farming 新农村建设成果：合作社与有机农业,翟城村农民登记参加乡建学院发动的合作社。peasants joined the cooperative helped by IRR,志愿者创办的乡村建设学院的有机农业实验室。Volunteers working for the IRR Lab of org. farming,堆肥/畜力/土法治虫烟叶、辣椒浸汁organic fertilizer and poison,Comprehensive Cyclic Eco-Agriculture with labor intensive pro