国际金融chap214thedition

Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,Understanding,Foreign Exchange,2,Payments Among Nations,3,The Foreign Exchange Market,4,Forward Exchange and International Financial Investment,5,What Determines Exchange Rates?,6,Government Policies Toward the Foreign Exchange Market,7,International Lending and Financial Crises,Part One,1,CHAPTER TWO,Payments among Nations,国际收支,2,This chapter examines the framework used to summarize a countrys international transactions.,3,Framework of chapter 2,Accounting principles,记账原则,A countrys balance of payments,一国的国际收支,The macro meaning of the current account balance,经常账户余额的宏观意义,The macro meaning of the overall balance,总余额的宏观意义,4,Balance of Payments,国际收支,Balance of payments are the set of accounts recording all flows of value between a nations residents and the residents of the rest of the world during a period of time.,p13,国际收支：国际收支是指一国的居民在一定时期内（一年、一季度、一月）与他国居民之间的经济交易的系统记录。,Balance of Payments Statement:,国际收支平衡表,Figure 2.1,5,Accounting principles,A credit item,(+): a country,must,be paid,; payment by a foreigner into the country.,A debit item,(-): a country,must pay,; payment by the country to a foreigner.,Exports of goods,Purchases by foreigners in this country,Foreigners investing in the countrys bonds,Imports of goods,Purchases from foreign countries,Purchases by investors in this country from foreigners,6,A countrys balance of payments,Three major parts of a countrys balance of payments:,Current account,（经常账户）,Financial account,（金融账户）,Official international reserves,（官方国际储备）,7,Current account,经常账户,The,current account,includes all debit and credit items that are exports and imports of goods and services, income receipts and income payments, and gifts.,8,Current account,goods and service,income,unilateral transfer,单方面转移,Payments and receipts on foreign financial assets, like interest, dividends(,股息,) and other claims(,债权,).,Gifts the country makes and receives,Figure 2.1,Goods and service imports and exports,9,The net value of flows of goods, services, income, and unilateral transfers is the,current account balance,.,Current account balance (,CA,),经常账户差额,商品贸易差额、,劳务差额加上收入净额和无偿转移收支净额之和,。,Positive balance: Surplus,(,盈余,),Negative balance: Deficit (,赤字,),10,Goods and service balance, often called,trade balance(,贸易差额,), is the net value of exports and imports of goods and services. It is a important balance within the current account.,11,贸易逆差和顺差,贸易顺差,贸易的双方互相买卖各种货物，互相进口与出口，其中的差额，对甲方来说，就叫作贸易顺差，反之，对乙方来说，就叫贸易逆差。,一般就贸易双方的利益来讲，其中得到贸易顺差的一方是占便宜的一方，而得到贸易逆差的一方则是吃亏的一方。,贸易顺差越多并不一定好，过高的贸易顺差，意味着本国经济的增长比过去几年任何时候都更依赖于外部需求，对外依存度过高。,12,Contd,如中国，巨额的贸易顺差带来了外汇储备的膨胀，给人民币带来了更大的升值压力，也给国际上贸易保护主义势力以口实，认为巨额顺差反映的是人民币被低估。这增加了人民币升值压力和金融风险，为人民币汇率机制改革增加了成本和难度。,贸易逆差,反映该国当年在对外贸易中处于不利地位。一国政府当局应当设法避免长期出现贸易逆差，因为大量逆差将致使国内资源外流，对外债务增加。这种状况同样会影响国民经济正常运行。,Note: we are not saying which one is good or bad,13,Reading,Chinas trade surplus with US misread,视频：中国贸易顺差总量收窄 对美升高,14,Financial account,金融账户,Financial account reports the,principal amounts,only of assets traded (,private,capital flows).,指用于记录各机构单位（部门或经济总体）在一定时期所发生的各种金融交易的账户。,Please note,:,Any flows of,earnings,on foreign assets are reported in the current account.,15,Contd,Varieties of private capital flows,Direct investment,直接投资,lending to, or purchases of ownership in,International portfolio investment,国际证券投资,purchases of bonds and stocks,Financial account,P15,Debit item? Credit item?,Capital outflow,Capital inflow,16,Financial account balance (FA),金融账户差额,The net value of flows of financial assets and similar claims (excluding official international reserve asset flows) is the private,financial account balance,（,FA,）,.,Figure 2.1 p15,17,Official international reserves (OR),官方国际储备,Official international reserves assets are money-like assets that are held by governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them.,Gold,Foreign exchange assets, (e.g. U.S. Treasury bonds),Special drawing rights (SDRs) in IMF,Figure 2.1 p15,18,Add the three major parts of a countrys balance of payments together,According to,double-entry bookkeeping,positive items + negative items = 0,19,三项之和不为零,原因是,统计,误差和遗漏，经常是资本地下出逃。估计,中国,每年资金外逃6000亿RMB,（如贪官外逃所携带的资金），,占GDP的6%，几乎吃掉中国经济的增长率。,20,Statistical Discrepancy,统计误差,It is a item created to make the accounts balance and to warn us that something was missed.,Figure 2.1,note a,p15,21,The CA has several meanings.,1.,CA= I,f,经常帐户、金融帐户和官方国际储备之间的关系。,理论上三者之和为零。,则（,CA=FA,OR,）,THE MACRO MEANING OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE,22,Financial account + Official international reserve,Net flows of international financial investment (private and official financial investment),Net foreign investment (I,f,),净国外投资,CA = I,f,Current account balance,Contd,23,Contd,CA = S I,d,A country can do two things with its national savings:,S = I,d,+ I,f,so that,CA = S I,d,24,Contd,CA = Y E,A countrys current account balance also is linked to domestic production, income, and expenditure.,Y = C + I,d,+ G +(X M),商品和劳务的生产,=,消费,+,投资政府支出贸易差额,E = C + I,d,+ G,对商品和劳务总支出,=,消费,+,投资政府支出,National income,Expenditure,25,收入的四部门模型。四部门包括家庭、 企业、政府和国外部门。,居民户,企业,商品或劳务,货币（消费,C,）,提供生产要素,货币（工资或利息）,金融机构,储蓄,S,投资,I,政府,税收,T,支出,G,国外部门,国外企业购买（出口）,向国外企业购买（进口）,26,Contd,Therefore, Y = E +(X M),and CA = (X M) approximately,-the difference between the value of the countrys exports and imports of goods and services.,so that,CA = Y E,27,Meaning of current account balance,p20,Note: we are not saying which one is good or bad,28,These identities help us see what must be changed if the current account balance is to be changed.,The identities also help us to understand what forces might be causing changes in the current account balance.,Figure 2.2,29,If CA is in deficit, then what could we do?,e.g. Increase Y, or decrease E.,30,The overall balance should indicate whether a countrys balance of payments has achieved an overall pattern that is sustainable over time.,Official settlements balance,(,官方结算差额,),Current account balance,+,Financial account balance,B,=,CA,+,FA,p15 figure 2.1 note b,THE MACRO MEANING OF THE OVERALL BALANCE,p23,31,因为所有项目最终差额必须为,0,，所以官方结算差额,(,总差额）的不平衡必须用,官方储备资产,（,OR,）来弥补，,因此，,B,+,OR,=,0,If B0,，,surplus, accumulation of OR.,B0,，,deficit, decrease of OR.,32,国际收支逆差的影响,外国投资者与本国投资者持有本币的信心将会极大地削弱，随着外国投资者与本国投资者大量抛出本币或本币表示的资产，本币汇率会面临着较大的下跌压力。,如果该国货币当局不愿接受本币贬值的后果，就需要对外汇市场进行干预，即动用外汇储备抛出外币收回本币。,后果：耗竭储备，引发危机,33,国际收支顺差的影响,国际收支顺差促进经济增长，增加了外汇储备，增强了综合国力 ，提高对外融资能力和引进外资能力本币持续坚挺，出口受到影响。不利于发展国际经济关系。一国的国际收支出现大量的顺差，意味着有关国家国际收支发生逆差，常常表现为出口和进口的失衡，因而容易引起贸易摩擦，影响国际经济关系。,20,世纪,80,年代美国和日本的贸易摩擦、,21,世纪初我国和美国、欧盟国家的贸易争端，都是典型的例子。,34,Question,“A country is better off running a current account surplus rather than a current account deficit.” Do you agree or disagree?,Homework: P27 Q8,35,Disagree. One meaning of a current account surplus is that the country is exporting more goods and services than it is importing. One might easily judge that this is not goodthe country is producing goods and services that are exported, but the country is not at the same time getting the imports of goods and services that would allow it do more consumption and domestic investment. In this way a current account deficit might be considered goodthe extra imports allow the country to consume and invest domestically more than the value of its current production. Another meaning of a current account surplus is that the country is engaging in foreign financial investmentit is building up its claims on foreigners, and this adds to national wealth. This sounds good, but as noted above it comes at the cost of foregoing,（放弃）,current domestic purchases of goods and services.,36,A current account deficit is the country running down,（减少）,its claims on foreigners or increasing its indebtedness,（债务）,to foreigners. This sounds bad, but it comes with the benefit of higher levels of current domestic expenditure. Different countries at different times may weigh the balance of these costs and benefits differently, so that we cannot simply say that a current account surplus is better than a current account deficit.,37,Chinas economy,：,Not made in China,Feb 11th 2009, From E,Chinas exports dive but its trade surplus grows,IMPORTS to China plunged in January, signalling that demand is shrinking alarmingly: they fell by 43.1% compared with a year earlier, worse than forecast and double the decline in December. But Chinas trade surplus, at $39.1 billion, is one of the biggest on record because a huge tumble in exports of 17.5 was dwarfed by falling imports. A recovery in Chinese exports is unlikely as the world slides deeper into an economic slump but imports may well pick upChina has resumed importing iron ore after running down stocks in recent months. Chinas economy could also get a boost from a big government stimulus package.,38,AFP,Readers comments,39,