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Carbon Emission OffsetsGary BullFaculty of Forestry,University of British ColumbiaVancouver,CanadaSeptember 19,20191BullCarbon SequestrationCarbon Markets 2019Carbon DealsCarbon Actors Intermediaries Challenges People,Process2BullDoes Carbon Sequestration Matter?3BullCarbon markets potential 2019International Pre-ComplianceRetail MarketRegional Markets-EU National Markets Japan,Canada,AustraliaUS MarketSUB-NATIONAL MARKETSMassachusettsNew HampshireNSWNational market DenmarkNational MarketUnited Kingdom4BullShare of Emission Reduction5BullMarket Buyers6BullDealsCanadaBelize7BullCanada-Chile?Hog farmAgricola Super Ltd,Chileo400 thousand tonnes annual reductiono10 years-4 million tonnes credit$20 million technology investment to reduce methaneTransalta,CanadaoReleases 30 million tonnes CO2E annuallyoNot sure what its obligations are under KyotooPurchased 1.75 million tonnes CO2E for 9 million$US8BullCanada voluntary market9BullBelize Reforestation-CDM8000 ha planted50 000 ha in total10BullBelize11BullBelize Project-Net Greenhouse Gas Removal by Sinks12BullBelize Forest Nursery13BullBelize Carbon Ownership14BullActorsInternational InstitutionsGovernments BuyersSellersBrokersIntermediariesTransactions costs15BullIntermediariesLawyersAccountantsResource ConsultantsInsurersEngineersResearchers16BullTransaction CostsSummary of the Mark-up on Product Pricing Bamboo flooringPlayerOriginal CostAdded Cost/MarkupSale PriceMarginFlooring Manufacturer$15-$17/m2-$18 20/m215 20%Importer and Wholesaler$18 20/m2$2/m2(handling)$12 13/m2(markup)$32 35/m260 70%Retailer$32 35/m2$15 25/m2(markup)$47 60/m240 70%Consumer$100/m2Source:Bull 201917BullTypes of Transaction Costs18BullTransaction costsMilne 2019-CIFOR19BullProjects examples20BullChallengesProcessPeopleManage the mad scientists!Recognize the limits to bureaucratic intelligence!Beware of the lawyers,insurance salesman,consultants and accountants!Shady sellers and ignorant buyers21BullConclusionsForest and Agriculture need inclusion Deals are diverse-Wild West mentalityTransaction costs will kill many dealsPeople in the process can also kill deals22BullChallenges23BullKey challengesProcessMixed motive problemAccounting toolsLeakage,Baseline,PermanenceRisks Learning curve24BullKinds of offsetsLandfill gas,methane reduction,bioenergy,etc.Forest carbon sequestrationAfforestation,Reforestation,Deforestation(Article 3.3)Management Intensification(Article 3.4)Avoided losses-(Article 3.4)25BullKey Questions Why do we want forest carbon sequestration included in the current global dialogue on climate change?To find money:basic forest management e.g.part of ftg costs institutional reform costs e.g.carbon poolingmgmt plans multiple objectives management strategy e.g green-up alleviate poverty?-unknown26BullWhat are the opportunities?Planting degraded or barren areasIntensify management on existing forestsConserving or manage differently forests which have large carbon stock27BullWhat are the challenges?Risks(fire,insect and disease)Measurement tools(all the carbon pools)Reluctance to allow sequestration to trade off against emission reductionProperty rights are newTransaction costsIncome distribution28BullSolutions to the challengesRiskBuild risk modelsCreate carbon poolsBuy insuranceMeasurementUse the best available scienceMake sure the measurement is cost effectiveInvest in new R and D.Use biological models sensitive the marketplace29BullSolutions to the challengesSequestration vs.EmissionTeam up with the agriculturalistHelp people get the perspective e.g.fireUse good science on the measurement side 30BullKinds of offsetsLandfill gas,methane reduction,bioenergy,etc.Forest carbon sequestrationAfforestation,Reforestation,Deforestation(Article 3.3)Management Intensification(Article 3.4)Avoided losses-(Article 3.4)31BullKey Questions Why do we want forest carbon sequestration included in the current global dialogue on climate change?To find money:basic forest management e.g.part of ftg costs institutional reform costs e.g.carbon poolingmgmt plans multiple objectives management strategy e.g green-up alleviate poverty?-unknown32BullWhat are the opportunities?Planting degraded or barren areasIntensify management on existing forestsConserving or manage differently forests which have large carbon stock33BullWhat are the challenges?Risks(fire,insect and disease)Measurement tools(all the carbon pools)Reluctance to allow sequestration to trade off against emission reductionProperty rights are newTransaction costsIncome distribution34BullSolutions to the challengesRiskBuild risk modelsCreate carbon poolsBuy insuranceMeasurementUse the best available scienceMake sure the measurement is cost effectiveInvest in new R and D.Use biological models sensitive the marketplace35BullSolutions to the challengesSequestration vs.EmissionTeam up with the agriculturalistHelp people get the perspective e.g.fireUse good science on the measurement side 36BullSolutions to the challengesDeveloping new marketsClarify ownershipStrengthen the weak institutionsDeal with the specifics leakage,contract period,permanenceExperimentMake sure you deal with the distribution of income issue37BullSolutions to the challengesResearch1.Transaction costsa.Efficient regulatory frameworkb.Efficient markets2.Income distributiona.Collect data householdb.Analyzec.38BullCarbon activitiesArticle 3.3 CDM project proposals in Belize,China and UgandaNon spatial and spatial forest risk modelsTransaction costs analysisInstitutional analysis for small farmersArticle 3.4Fertilization impact assessmentDevelop new forest planning modelCarbon conservation in Canadian old growth avoided deforestation in other context39BullOther activitiesBiodiversity measurement in the KootenaysISO 1406440BullCarbon Emission OffsetsPayment systemsActorsDealsChallengesLinks to poverty reduction41BullTools for creating deals42BullArea:610 000 ha(1 549 400 acres)Current Harvest:900 000 m3Biogeoclimatic Zones:AT,BG,ESSF,ICH,IDF,MS,SBPS,SBSMajor Tree Species:Black Cottonwood,Trembling Aspen,Douglas-fir,Sub-alpine Fir,White Birch,Lodgepole Pine,Engelmann SpruceRed-listed Species:American White Pelican,Peregrine Falcon,Prairie Falcon,Brewers Sparrow,Yellow Breasted Sparrow,Lake Whitefish,Giant Pygmy WhitefishLignum IFPAProject Area43Bull125,000 PolygonsAgeOperabilityAreaForest Cover200 Layers Defining Management ObjectivesRoads 2,000 Yield CurvesBlock Size TargetsPatch Size TargetsFORECAST Carbon CurvesFSOS44BullFinancial AnalysisScenario 4:No Discounting45Bull谢谢你的阅读v知识就是财富v丰富你的人生
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