营运资本和设备贷款的信用风险

Credit Risks in Working Capital and Equipment Loans营运资本和设备贷款的信用风险Alexandru CebotariWorking Capital Why Is It So Important营运资本：为何这么重要？The financial element of risk is defined as the inability of cash generation to:风险的财务元素被定义为现金流量不能达到以下情况：Maintain working capital 维持运营资本Maintain productive assets 维持经营性资产Meet debt service in schedule 不能定期还本付息Pay reasonable dividends 支付合理股息Maintain some borrowing power 维持一定的借款能力Cash generation is defined as profits plus depreciation.Is it true?现金流量被定义为利润加上折旧，正确吗？Operating expenses on the net income statement include depreciation expense,which does not require a cash outlay净损益表上的运营开支包括折旧开支（不需要现金支出）Decrease in current assets,other then cash,have positive effects on cash flows,and increases in current assets have a negative effect.流动资产而非现金的减少对于现金流有积极的影响，而流动资产的增加则带来消极的影响An increase in the current liabilities has a positive effect,and a decrease in current liabilities has a negative effect.流动负债的增加有积极的影响，反之则有消极影响Evaluating Historical Performance评价过往表现Income Statement损益表损益表Profitability?盈利能力Return on Equity?净资产收益率Non-Current Assets非流动非流动资产资产Sources and Uses of Funds资金的来资金的来源和使用源和使用Long-Term Debt长期债务长期债务Equity股权股权Change in W/CCurrent Assets流动资流动资产产Current Liabilities流动负债流动负债Volume Liquidity NeedsServicing还本付息Servicing还本付息Current Creditor Commit-Ments流动债权人流动债权人承担费承担费Deficiency?不足Reserve?准备金Long-Term Creditor Commit-Ments长期债权人长期债权人的承担费的承担费Deficiency?不足Reserve?准备金Evaluating Business Plans评价商业计划Manage-ment Ability管理能力Funds Adequacy资金充足Environ-mental Coditions环境情况Operating Practices操作规范Role of Working Capital营运资本的角色Current Assets流动资产Current Liabilities流动负债Short-Term Creditors Commitments短期债权人承担费W/CNon-Current Assets非流动资产Long-Term Debt长期负债Equity股权Long-Term Creditors Commitments长期债权人承担费W/CAsset Conversion Cycle资产转换周期The Asset Conversion Cycle represents the number of days it takes a company to purchase raw materials,convert them into finished goods,sell the finished product to a customer and receive payment for the product资产转换周期指一个公司采购原材料，转换为成品，出售给客户并收到付款的时间 库存在库天数库存在库天数 应收账款周转天数应收账款周转天数 应付账款周转天数应付账款周转天数 现金周转周期 The ACC has three components:资产转换周期有三个部分：Days Receivables Outstanding应收帐款收款天数Measures the average number of days from the sale of goods to the collection of receivables 衡量从货物的出售到回收应收账款的平均天数(Average Accounts Receivables/Sales)*365 days （平均应收账款/销售）*365 天Days Inventory Held库存持有天数Measures the average length of time between acquisition and sale of merchandise 衡量从获得商品到出售商品之间的平均时间长度(Average Inventories/Cost of Goods Sold)*365 （平均库存/出售货物的成本）*365Days Accounts Payable Outstanding应付账款付款天数Measures the average length of time between the purchase of goods and payment for them 衡量从购买商品到支付款项之间的平均时间长度(Average Accounts Payable/Purchases)*365,where （平均应付账款/采购）*365 在这里，Purchases=Cost of Goods Sold+Ending InventoryBeginning Inventory 采购=出售商品的成本+期末存货-期初存货Cash Cycle Illustration现今周期说明Companies公司ABC1.Sales rate per day 每天销售率$1M$1M$1M2.Days sales in receivables应收帐款周转天数 3060153.Days sales in inventory存货的平均周转期 609004.Days in trading cycle 交易周期天数90150155.Days sales in payables 应付账款周转天数-45-30-156.Days sales of working capital required 所需运营资本天数4512007.Receivable investment(1x2)应收账款投资$30M$60M$15M8.Inventory investment(1x3)库存投资60M90M09.Trading cycle investment(1x4)交易周期投资90M150M15M10.Payable support(1x5)应付账款支持-45M-30M-15M11.Required working capital support所需运营资本支持45M120M012.Current ratio relationship(9/10)流动率关系2x5x1xCash Flow Quality现金流质量Qualitative aspect 定性定性High quality 质量高质量高Low quality 质量低质量低Inventory valuation 存货估值LIFO understates profits in inflationary period 后进先出方法低估通胀期的利润FIFO overstates profits in inflationary period 先进先出方法高估通胀期的利润Depreciation method 折旧方法Accelerated depreciation more accurately matches replacement cost 更准确地对应加速折旧与替代费用Straight-line depreciation under-reserves funds for fixed assets:thus,it overstates earnings 直线折旧保留了固定资产资金的追偿权，因此，高估了收益Deferred assets 递延资产Intangibles are written off as quickly as possible 尽快注销无形资产Expenses are capitalized and earnings are overstated 费用资本化，高估收益Deferred income 递延收益Income is deferred while expenses are flowed through:for example,benefits of investment tax credits are deferred 收益递延而开支流，例如，投资税收抵免的好处被递延Expenses are deferred:for example,plant start-up costs and tax credits are taken immediately 开支被递延了：例如，工厂设立成本和税收抵免被立即Tax rate 税率“Normal”effective tax rate usually reflects minimal reliance on various tax deferral methods investment tax credits,capital gains credits,percentage depletion deductions and therefore,better quality Low effective tax rate usually reflects reliance on various tax deferral methods and therefore,low qualityServicing Current Liabilities流动负债处理Sales volume,the rate of turnover of current assets,working capital and current creditors terms are factors that determine how a firm services current debts销售量、流动资产周转率、营运资本和当前的贷款人条款等因素决定一个公司如何处理流动负债Assume that sales double,the firm operates with positive working capital position and the commitments from current creditors do not increase.What scenario do you foresee?假定销售增加一倍，公司的营运资本为正，而目前的债权人提供的贷款额度没有增加，你能预见什么情景？What does happen if the rate ot turnover of current assets slows to half its former rate?如果流动资产周转率降至原先的一半，会发生什么状况？What does happen if the firm operates with a deficit working capital requirement?如果公司在营运资本为赤字的条件下运营，会发生什么状况？Overtrading?过量交易？There are four elements of risk associated with overtrading:与过量交易相关的风险体现在4个方面：Serious depletion of profit;利润严重损耗Organization failure associated with high volume;由于过量交易导致公司破产Receivables losses;and 应收帐款损失Inventory risks 存货风险Rule of thumb:current assets should cover total debt at the seasonal low经验法则：流动资产应包括季度最低峰时的总负债Sustainable Growth可持续增长If a rapidly growing company can maintain a prudent balance between debt and equity sources,the reliance on external capital creates no problems如果一个快速成长的公司能维持债务与股本来源之间的平衡，对外部资本的依赖不会带来任何问题In too many instances,rapid sales growth,coupled with modest profit margins and an inability to sell new equity,forces the company to rely increasingly on bank credit很多情况下，快速的销售收入增长，加上过低的利润率以及无力销售新股权，会迫使公司越来越依赖银行信贷Rapid growth may lead to increasing debt ratios and increasing banker headaches快速的增长可能会导致负债率增加，让银行家越来越头痛Two questions to be answered to when contemplating a loan to a rapidly expanding firm:在考虑是否要给一个快速扩张的公司贷款时，须回答以下两个问题：Is the applicant in balance?Given the companys growth targets and financial policies,will the company be able to maintain a stable debt ratio over time?申请公司是否能保持各方面的平衡？鉴于公司的增长目标和财务政策，公司能否一直维持一个稳定的负债率？When can the bank expect repayment of the loan?Is the requested amount sufficient or is the contemplated loan likely to be just the downpayment on a much larger commitment?银行何时才能期望贷款被偿还？申请的贷款金额足够吗？或者它只是很大一笔贷款数额中的首期付款？Sustainable Growth Rate(1)可持续增长率(1)Sustainable growth rate the annual percentage invcrease in sales which is consistent with a stable capital structure可持续增长率-销售增长的年百分比，和一个稳定的资本结构一致Sustainable Growth可持续增长Target Debt Ratio目标债务比率Target Payout Ratio目标派息比率ProfitMargin利润率Capital-OutputRatio资本产出比)1)(1()1)(1(LdptLdpgSustainable Growth Rate(2)可持续增长率(2)p=profit margin on sales P=销售利润率d=the target dividend payout ratio=(1-d)is the target retention ratio d=目标派息比率=(1-d)为目标自留额比率L=the target debt-to-equity ratio L=目标负债股本比t=the capital-output ratio defined as total assets divided by net sales t=资本产出比，销售净值/总资产s=sales at the beginning of the period s=期初的销售收入s=the increase in sales during the year s=年中销售收入增加值Assets at the beginning of year年初资产New assets needed to support increased sales 用于支撑销售的新资产Liabilities and owners Equity at beginning of year 年初负债与所有者权益Additions to liabilities负债增加值Additions to Retained Earnings留存收益增加值s(t)p(s+s)(1-d)Lp(s+s)(1-d)Example:Sustainable Growth Rate in Loan Appraisal举例：贷款评估中的可持续增长率President of Radar contacts the loan officer at the bank to secure a term loan of$500,000Radar公司总裁亲自联系银行信贷员确保能获得50万美元的定期贷款Radars target sales growth rate is 20%per yearRadar的目标销售增长率为每年20%Loan officer fears that the companys debt ratio will rise steadily in future years and could jeopardize the banks position 信贷员担心未来几年公司的负债率会稳固上升，会影响银行的地位Sales 销售收入$1,375,000Profit after tax 税后利润$82,500Dividends 红利$8,250Current assets流动资产$700,000Current liabilities流动负债$400,000Net fixed assets固定净资产$950,000Bank loan银行贷款$500,000Total assets总资产$1,650,000Owners equity所有者权益$750,000Total总计$1,650,000d=.10%11)2.11)(10.1)(06(.2.1)2.11)(10.1)(06(.gShort-term lending:What does short-term mean?短期贷款：短期是什么意思？Under short-term lending,the lender can get paid in the ordinary course of events in the short-term(such as within a year)在短期贷款条件下，贷款人能按照事项的常规进程在短期内得到偿付（如一年之内）The lender is required to have a clear understanding of the working capital adequacy if permanent working capital is inadequate,slow payment of continuous refinancing beyond a year should be anticipated贷款人需要对营运资本充足率有明确的认识如果永久性营运资本不够，应该持续性地再融资一年以上The elements of appropriate short-term lending include:适当的短期贷款的要素包括：Understanding the specific purpose 明白具体目的Structuring the maturity in line with the primary source of repayment 根据偿还的主要来源设计期限的结构Identifying the certainty of secondary sources of repayment implicit in the purpose 确认目标中已明确的偿还的次要来源Evaluating alternative protection available from the balance sheet;and possibly 评估资产负债表上存在的其他保护手段Ensuring access to secondary protection by taking security 通过采取安全措施，确保能够获得次级保护Characteristics of working capital loans营运资本贷款的特征Seasonal versus Permanent Working Capital Needs运营资本的季节性需求与永久性需求比较 All firms need some minimum level of current assets and current liabilities 所有公司都需要最低限度的流动资产和流动负债 The amount of current assets and current liabilities will vary with seasonal patterns 流动资产与流动负债的量因季节形态而异Permanent Working Capital 永久性营运资本 The minimum level of current assets minus the minimum level of adjusted current liabilities 最低限度的流动资产-最低限度的调整过的流动负债Adjusted Current Liabilities 调整后的流动负债 Current liabilities net of short-term bank credit and current maturities of long-term debt 短期银行信贷的流动负债净额和长期债务的一年内到期Seasonal Working Capital 季节性营运资本 Difference in total current assets and adjusted current liabilities 总流动资产与调整后的流动负债的差异Total Current Assets总的流动资产总的流动资产Minimum Current Assets最低流动资产最低流动资产Total Current Liabilities总的流动负债总的流动负债Minimum Current Liabilities最低流动负债最低流动负债Total=Permanent Working Capital Needs+Seasonal Working Capital Needs总计总计=永久运营资本需求永久运营资本需求+季节性运营资本需求季节性运营资本需求Permanent Working Capital Needs 永久运营资本需求永久运营资本需求qTime时间时间Seasonal Working Capital Needs 季节性运营资本需求季节性运营资本需求DollarsDollars美元Short-Term Commercial Loans(1)Open Credit Lines无固定期限信贷 Loan is seasonal if the need arises on a regular basis and if the cycle completes itself with one year 如果需求是固定的，并且循环在一年内完成的话，贷款是季节性的 Used to purchase raw materials and build up inventories of finished goods in anticipation of later sales 用于采购原材料，累计成品的库存以在日后出售 It is self-liquidating in the sense that repayment derives from the sale of finished goods that are financed 由于偿还来自于通过出售融资而得的成品，从这个意义上说是自偿的。Short-Term Commercial Loans(2)短期商业贷款Open Credit Lines无固定期限信贷 The bank makes a certain amount of funds available to a borrower for a set period of time 银行在固定期限内贷给借款人一定数量的贷款 Often used for seasonal loans 通常用在季节性贷款 The customer determines the timing of the actual borrowings(“takedowns”)客户决定实际借款的时机 Borrowings increase with inventory buildup and decline with the collection of receivables 借款随着库存增加而增加，随着应收账款的收取而下降Short-Term Commercial Loans(3)短期商业贷款Open Credit Lines无固定期限信贷 Typically require that the loan be fully repaid at least once during each year to confirm that the needs are seasonal 通常贷款需要在每年至少完全偿还一次来证明需求的季节性 Commitment Fee 承担费 A fee,in addition to interest,for making credit available 在利息之外，为了得到信贷的一笔费用 May be based on the entire credit line or on the unborrowed balance 可能基于全部信用额度或者基于非借入余额Short-Term Commercial Loans(4)短期商业贷款Asset-Based Loans资产支持贷款 Loans Secured by Inventories 由库存担保的贷款 The security consists of raw materials,goods in process,and finished products.证券包含原材料，正在加工的货物和成品 The value of the inventory depends on the marketability of each component if the borrower goes out of business 库存的价值取决于如果借款人破产，每种部件在市场上的销路.Banks will lend from 40 to 60 percent against raw materials that are common among businesses and finished goods that are marketable,and nothing against unfinished inventory 银行的贷款相当于常见原材料和有销路的成品价值的40%-60%，不会针对未完成的库存贷款Short-Term Commercial Loans(5)短期商业贷款Asset-Based Loans资产支持贷款 Loans Secured by Accounts Receivable由应收账款担保的贷款 The security consists of paper assets that presumably represent sales 证券包含假定可以代表销售的纸资产 The quality of the collateral depends on the borrowers integrity in reporting actual sales and the credibility of billings 抵押品的质量取决于借款人在申报实际销售时的诚实以及账单的可信度Short-Term Commercial Loans(6)短期商业贷款Asset-Based Loans 资产支持贷款 Loans Secured by Accounts Receivable 由应收账款担保的贷款 Accounts Receivable Aging Schedule 应收账款账龄分析表 List of A/Rs grouped according to the month in which the invoice is dated 根据发票上的纪录的月份，将应收账款的清单分组 Lockbox,锁箱功能 Customers mail payments go directly to a P.O.Box controlled by the bank 客户的邮件还款直接到达 由银行控制的邮箱 The bank processes the payments and reduces the borrowers balance but charges the borrower for handling the items 银行处理还款，减少借款人余额，但是向其收取处理项目的费用Short-Term Commercial Loans(7)短期商业贷款Revolving Credits循环信用 A hybrid of short-term working capital loans and term loans 一种短期运营资本贷款和定期贷款的混合 Typically involves the commitment of funds for 1 5 years 通常包括1到5年的资金的承担费 At the end of some interim period,the outstanding principal converts to a term loan 在某些过度期结尾的时候，未清偿的本金转为定期贷款 During the interim period,the borrower determines how much credit to use 在某些过度期结尾的时候，借款人决定使用多少信贷 Mandatory principal payments begin once the revolver is converted to a term loan 一旦循环信贷转为定期贷款时，强制性本金偿付开始