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Chapter One Economic BasicsI Key wordsGroup A- economic economy economist market economy produce/production/producer manufacture output production capacity product goods cost capital labor stock industry sector import export retail wholesale surplus/deficit budget supply/demand profit (margin) return revenue earnings gain recession inflation deflation boom slowdown recover/recovery downturn overheat consumer consumption household consumer spending consumer confidence survey figure poll statistics unemployment rate lay off capital market money market emerging market forecast expect/expectation predict/prediction prospect outlook sign signal concern measure quarter fiscal year annual financial year over the same period last year compared with the same period of last year year on year for the 5th straight month for the fifth consecutive month in the first two months of the yearslide slip surge tumble shrink jump slump raise soar drop fall decline hike exceed prompt curb promote boost drive include exclude trigger tighten loosen set a target oil fuel raw materials automobile energy Group B -pessimist/pessimism/pessimistic optimist/optimism/optimistic buoyant / sluggish strength weaken worsen quicken accelerate deteriorate estimate stimulus incentives maintain sustain release acquisition merger billion/ trillion market share indicate volume overheat release itemproductivity launch efficient/efficiency asset temporary developing economy domesticII. News Reading. (A) China Partly Lifts Veil on GDP DataThe Wall Street Journal April 16, By TOM ORLIK BEIJINGChinas publication of a new kind of economic data brings it closer in line with the way other major economies report growth, but also exposes continuing problems with the quality of its statistics, analysts said.The headline figure when China reported its economic data for the first quarter of this year on Friday was the 9.7% growth rate in gross domestic product. That figure, as with all of Chinas quarterly GDP numbers in the past, compared output in the report period with output in the same three months of last year.But the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday also published, for the first time, data on how economic output compared with the previous quarter. This quarter-on-quarter number, which is adjusted to account for seasonal differences and multiplied according to a compound growth formula to give an annualized rate, is how the U.S. and most other major economies report their quarterly GDP data. By this measure, the statistics bureau said, GDP in the first quarter grew 2.1%, or 8.7% on an annualized basis according to Wall Street Journal calculationssignificantly slower than the year-on-year figuresuggesting the current momentum of the worlds second-largest economy is markedly slower than the year-on-year figure indicates. Big economies use adjusted quarter-on-quarter data because they provide a more real-time picture of the current trajectory of growth. A statement on the bureaus website April 8 said: Year-on-year data does not provide up-to-date information on changes in the economy.The development of quarter-on-quarter indicators will make up for that shortcoming and provide better information to policy makers and analysts.Economists who watch China generally agree that the move represents progress. But the progress is limited, because the statistics bureau failed to publish any historical data for the quarterly measurewhich is important for understanding where the current number fits into past trends. Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Beijing-based research firm Dragonomics, said, The revisions aim to create a series that has a closer relation to reality, but the failure of the NBS to produce comparable historical data, or to clearly explain their methodology, detract from progress that is made.The statistics bureau didnt explain the omission. Analysts said it likely arose at least partly because such data would reveal a much sharper slowdown during the recent global recession than the government has ever acknowledgedparticularly in the fourth quarter of . In a Wall Street Journal poll of China economists in early , the median estimate for quarter-on-quarter annualized growth in the final quarter of was 1.5%, compared with an official growth rate of 6.8% in the official year-on-year data.The statistics bureau had suggested that the quarter-on-quarter data would be available starting in . Difficulties in adjusting the growth rate to account for seasonal variationsin particular the weeklong New Year holiday that falls in January some years and February in others delayed the process.(B) China inflation surges to 25-month highBy Geoff Dyer Financial Times November 11 Chinese inflation jumped to its highest level in just over two years in October, prompting new fears that the economy could be overheating as a result of the governments huge stimulus measures. Consumer price inflation surged to 4.4 per cent in October from 3.6 per cent the month before, well above the governments target of 3 per cent and increasing the pressure on the authorities to introduce new tightening measures. The countrys banks are also on track to exceed this years quota for bank lending after new loans reached Rmb587.7bn ($88.7bn, 55bn, 64.7bn) in October. Economists said that to meet the full-year target of Rmb7,500bn, there would need to be a sharp contraction in new bank lending in the past two months of the year. Although inflation in China has been inching up for some months, the big jump in October surprised many economists and raises the chances of further interest rate rises this year to follow the increase last month and the increase in bank reserve requirements announced on Wednesday. Beijing is also under pressure from other governments to accelerate the appreciation of its currency a topic that will be prominent at Fridays G20 summit which could help damp inflationary pressures. At the close of Asian trading on Thursday, the Chinese currency had gained almost 1 per cent against the dollar over three days. Li Wei and Stephen Green at Standard Chartered in Shanghai said that on a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer price inflation increased at an annualised rate of 12.1 per cent in October, up from 5.2 per cent the month before. “This is worrying as inflation is now heading towards its level in mid-, which was a time of overheating,” they said in a note. Earlier this week, Zhang Ping, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the main economic planning body, acknowledged inflation would exceed the 3 per cent target this year. He blamed the weaker US dollar, speculation in commodities markets and loose monetary conditions. Several Chinese officials have warned in recent weeks that the new round of quantitative easing in the US will lead to hot money inflows into developing economies, and the Chinese foreign exchange regulator has taken steps this week to reduce capital inflows in the financial system. However, many economists believe that it is relaxed monetary policy in China which is adding to the domestic inflationary pressures, rather than capital inflows from overseas. “There is no trick to keeping growth afloat on a sea of credit, the question is what happens when the lending taps are turned off,” said Tom Orlik, an economist at Stone & McCarthy in Beijing.Jun Ma at Deutsche Bank predicts that the authorities will relabel monetary policy from “relaxed” to “prudent” at an economic policymakers conference in December, which would signal a reduction in the planned growth of new loans for next year. Some economists predict the government might introduce some form of price controls if the inflation rate remains at this level. “China needs to do more to keep this years inflation under the target ceiling,” Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the statistics bureau, said on Thursday. Other figures released on Thursday suggested the economy continues to expand at a strong rate. Industrial production increased 13.1 per cent in October compared to the year before, while retail sales expanded by 18.6 per cent, year-on-year.Chapter Two Banking I Key wordssavings account checking account demand/current account time/fixed account deposit/withdrawdeposit slip bank statement maturity default passbook pass card /bankcard password principal interest Debit Card Credit card account to open an account to close an account deposit withdraw overdraft/overdraw charge for （free of charge ）cheque,check write a check chquebook/checkbookto honor a cheque to dishonor a cheque fill out/in denomination=face value bill, note change coincash amount in figures amount in words balance travelers check/chque loan apply for/grant a loandebt mortgage foreclosure subprime collateral by instalment cashier tellerII. Sentences1.A: 请问我到哪里可以存钱？ B：请到那边的3号窗口。2. A: 请问你们什么时候营业？B: 我们在工作日营业时间是早8点到晚8点。但我们的取款机每天24小时都工作，您可以从取款机中取款。3. A: 对不起，我期的定期存款还没有到期，请问我目前能取走里面的钱吗？B：对不起，不可以。您至少要提前3天告知我们。4. A: 你打算怎么解决你们的余额资金？B: 我想把剩余的一半资金提出来，把剩余的另一半资金转到我们客户在汇丰银行的账户中。5. A: 您想在这个2年期的定期存款账户中存多少钱？B: 我想想，我的储蓄账户中尚有5千元，我手头上尚有2千元。我打算在这个账户中寸7千元。6. A: 今天早上我接到贵银行的电话。在电话中告知我的汇款已经到了，让我去取钱。B: 我看看是不是从美国的4千美元的电汇？7. A: 请问，兑换支票你们罢手续费吗？ B: 是的，我们罢手续费。您每开一张支票就要花人民币2元。您在开支票前请弄清晰您存款的金额，否则，如果透支，每张支票将罚款5元。8. A: 我丈夫和我筹划买一种房子。我们在下个星期要付首付，我们需要获得一种抵押贷款来融资。B：你与否介意告诉我房子多少钱，首付是多少钱，你想从我们银行获得多少钱？9. A：我们已收到贵行的催款单。但我们目前还款有困难。我们还需要点时间才干售完我们的货品，归还贷款。B：我懂了。在这种状况下，你可以申请延期贷款，但是，恐怕您得继续交纳利息了。10. A：你想如何要这些钱？ B：5张100的，10张50的，10张10块的。正好，你能帮我破一下这张100的吗？Chapter Three Financial MarketsI Key wordsFinancial market money market capital market T-bill(Treasury Bill) T-note T-bond Certificate of deposit(CD) Commercial Paper Bankers acceptance Repos and Reverses Eurodollar Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) auction face/par value coupon municipal bond government bond corporate bond short-term financing London Interbank Offered Rate(LIBOR) discount rate primary market secondary market redeem(redemption) maturity II. Related knowledgeTreasury Securities and Break-even Inflation RateWhat Does Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - TIPS Mean?A treasurysecurity that is indexed to inflation in order to protect investors from the negative effects of inflation. TIPS are considered an extremely low-risk investment since they are backed by the U.S. government and since their par value rises with inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, while their interest rate remains fixed. Interest on TIPS is paid semiannually. TIPS can be purchased directly from the government through the TreasuryDirect system in $100 increments with a minimum investment of $100 and are available with 5-, 10-, and 20-year maturities. To illustrate, assume a $1,000-U.S. TIPS was purchased with a 3% coupon; also assume inflation during the first year was 10%. If this were the case, the face value of the TIPS would adjust upward by 10%, to $1,100. Furthermore, the coupon payment (3%), which is also based on face value, would be $33 (in actuality payments adjust and are paid semi-annually). The end of result is that not only are interest payments protected against inflation, but so is face value of the bond, which is returned to the investor at maturity. Traditional nominal bonds offer neither of these protections.Because TIPS protect investors against inflationary concerns and nominal bonds do not, they behave differently from one another. More specifically, as inflationary expectations increase, nominal bonds will become less attractive as future interest payments are eroded by inflation. Similarly, as inflationary concerns decrease (which includes deflation), nominal bonds become more attractive relative to TIPS as future interest payments become more valuable on a real (or after inflation) basis. Break-Even InflationTraditional fixed-income investments may not provide the real return investors need during periods of high inflation. Its important to know whether your traditional fixed-income investment breaks-even with inflation. Break-even inflation is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-rate investment and the real yield on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. If inflation averages more than the break-even, the inflation-linked investment will outperform the fixed-rate. Conversely, if inflation averages below the break-even, the fixed-rate will outperform the inflation-linked.Calculation Formula:Comparable Fixed-Rate Inflation-Linked Real Yield = Break-Even InflationCalculation Example: = 4.00% 5-Year CD1.05% Inflation-Linked Real Yield 2.95% Break-Even Inflation An inflation-linked investments coupon is determined by adding the current rate of inflation to the real yield. In the example above, the average rate of inflation would have to be more than 2.95% in order for the inflation-linked investment to outperform the fixed-rate investment. And if inflation averaged lower than 2.95%, the fixed-rate investment would outperform the inflation-linked.III. Advanced ReadingThe puzzle of low Treasury-bond yieldsMay 29th From The Economist print editionTHE yield of Treasury bonds is arguably the single most important indicator in financial markets. Since the American government is unlikely to default, the bond yield sets the risk-free rate against which other assets are measured. It also serves as a barometer of investors feelings about economic variables like inflation and recession.But precisely because it does so many things, the Treasury bond can send out conflicting signals. Consumers have been grumbling about the inflationary impact of higher oil and food prices for a while. But bond investors have only recently taken fright, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond above 4% on May 28, for the first time since the start of the year. Even now, however, the breakeven inflation rate (the difference between yields on conventional and inflation-linked bonds) on five-year Treasury issues is just 2.4%, within the range it has occupied for the past four years; compare that with the 7.7% inflation rate that American consumers expect over the next 12 months.One possibility is that the “bond-market vigilantes” have been asleep. “We sometimes wonder if Treasury-bond investors enjoy losing money,” muses Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital, as he ponders the logic of owning ten-year Treasuries yielding close to 4% when headline inflation is heading (on his view) for more than 5% by August.Bill Gross of Pimco, a bond-market investor, argues that inflation is understated in the official American figures because of statistical adjustments made over the past 25 years. The result may be that investors have been fooled into buying Treasury bonds on unrealistic expectations of real (after-inflation) yields.Another possibility is that breakeven rates are not an effective measure of investors inflation expectations. That is the view of Jack Malvey, a strategist at Lehman Brothers. He argues that yields on inflation-linked bonds have been distorted over the past decade by demand from pension funds, which see the bonds as an ideal way to match their liabilities. A third option is that bond investors think todays inflation rates are a blip. “Inflation may be an issue now but it likely wont be over the next ten years,” says Pavan Wadhwa, head of European rates strategy at JPMorgan Chase. Optimists argue the anti-inflation credibility of central banks is stronger than in the 1970s. And they note that high oil prices, although they push up inflation in the short term, ultimately tend to act as a tax on growth.The credit crunch may also be having lingering effects. Bond yields reached their low in mid-March when the Bear Stearns crisis was in full swing. At that point, the ten-year Treasury bond yielded just 3.31%, the lowest level in five years. Investors were fleeing the riskier debt of bank and other corporate borrowers for the safety of government paper. Yields have moved up by more than half a percentage point since then, as investors have started to move money out of government bonds and back into the equity market. But recessionary fears still linger, especially when investors are bombarded with statistics such as the continued fall in American house prices and the decline in consumer confidence. It may still be worth holding Treasury bonds yielding around 4% as a hedge against a sharp economic downturn. In short, the bond market is caught in an awkward compromise, with worries about the financial and economic outlook balancing concern about inflation.In the medium term, however, it is hard to argue with Lehmans Mr Malvey when he says that he expects yields in some government-bond markets to rise by two-to-three percentage points over the next two or three years. Although the world may not be about to return to the excesses of the 1970s, the Goldilocks era is tapering off: the trade-off between growth and inflation has deteriorated.Nor have Treasury-bond investors exactly been coining it in recent years. According to Barclays Capital, the annualised real return since the start of has been a meagre 1%. Will the Chinese, with a domestic inflation rate of 8.5%, really want to hold bonds yielding 4% in a currency they expect to depreciate against the yuan? Is the anti-inflationary credibility of the Federal Reserve really that convincing when it is clear that its rate decisions can be driven by concern for the health of the banking sector? Indeed does it make sense for German ten-year bonds to yield more than Treasuries when the inflationary rhetoric of the European Central Bank looks much more hawkish?Veteran investors may recall 1962, when the Treasury-bond yield was less than 4%. Those who bought bonds then earned negative real returns over the succeeding five-, ten- and 20-year periods. They should be very careful about making the same mistake again.Chapter Four Foreign ExchangeI. Key WordsForex (FX) Aussie loonie greenback cable Swissie kiwi bid ask spread pip appreciation depreciation revaluation devaluation currency basket pegging base currency cross currency quote currency reserve currency hard currency soft currency fixed exchange rate floating exchange rate cross rate exchange rateII. Text -Big Mac IndexEver since 1986, the Economist has published its famed Big Mac Index - an informal way of measuring the purchasing power parity (PPP) between two currencies. Its purpose is to make complex exchange-rate theory as digestible as. well. a Big Mac.The theory of purchasing power parity says that a dollar should buy the same amount in all countries. Thus, in the long run, the exchange rate between two countries should move towards the rate that equalizes the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in each country. By looking at a McDonalds Big Mac - a good that is produced in about 120 countries - the Economists tongue-in-cheek index illustrates how market exchange rates can result in identical goods having different prices in different countries. By comparing the cost of Big Macs across countries, the Big Mac Index calculates the Big Mac PPP - the exchange rate that would mean hamburgers cost the same in the U.S. as abroad. Compare the Big Mac PPP to the market exchange rates, and you see which currencies are under or over valued.How does it work?The Big Mac PPP exchange rate between two countries is obtained by dividing the price of a Big Mac in one country (in its currency) by the price of a Big Mac in anot
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