09024+2投资分析(英文)

Analysis Report of Macro EconomyWritten by:1013039 胡非1013040徐声1013041 叶俊卿1013042 吴越/11/10u Firstly, the global economy and foresight: faces three big challengesIn the first half of , global economic growth showed a trend of differentiation. United States is in the process of recovery, and recovery gradually increases. Japans recovery is in stimulating type. The process is in the short-term strong growth. Europe is still in debt during the recession, and growth is slow depressed. Emerging economies is in the process of structural slowdown in economic growth potential. In the face of post-crisis economic differentiation, tone of major economies policy will adjust accordingly. The whole, the global economy once again facing reshuffle and adjusting, mainly faces three risk challenges:(A) The risk of exit of the Federal Reserves quantitative easing The Federal Reserve may be exit of quantitative easing at the end of the year. In , U.S. subprime crisis caused the international financial crisis and American economy into a quagmire. In order to stimulate the U.S. economy growth, the Fed launched a round of quantitative easing.Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. economy is in steady recovery. It is expected the Federal Reserve will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing monetary policy. In the first quarter GDP fold at an annual rate of 1.8% in the United States, In the second quarter, manufacturing, real estate residents consumption market and financial conditions continue to improve. The recovery is strong. From the Federal Reserve most valued indicators, the unemployment rate, the U.S. job market has been improving steadily. There are more than average 00 monthly increased non-farm jobs, close to the normal level before the crisis. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in June, compared to the highest fell by 2.4 and at the end of this year unemployment rate is expected to further dropped to around 7%. The fed chairman said that if the U.S. economy recovery can reach the expected level, quantitative easing exit may have three big impacts on global financial markets. The quantitative easing will become the largest uncertainty in the global economic events, and a huge impact to global financial markets. One is global currency will inversion. With quantitative easing quit, it will lead to a dollar into the recession against the non-us currencies.Commodity prices will into the downlink channel. Once the exit of quantitative easing, the dollar rose value will bring down the commodity prices into the channel, it will have a significant for resources countryCapital flows reversed may induce local financial crisis. Since the long-term weak dollar and low interest rates, make it become the latest must-haves in the carry trade. Once the quantitative easing, the dollar carry trade positions, is bound to cause the dollar scale back, leading to other countries financial market turmoil.(B) The risk of the Yen depreciatedAbe economics gave rise to the yen depreciated economics. At the end of , Shinzo Abe implemented a series of economic stimulus policies; accelerate the core content of the so-called three narrow , namely, quantitative and qualitative easing monetary policy (QQE), flexible and fiscal policy. Structural reform is the core economic growth strategy.Under the QQE policy, the bank of Japan will base money growth rhythm about 60-70 trillion yen a year, at the same time, buy long-term government bonds and ETFs stock exchange traded funds real estate investment trust fund, and other risky assets, and promise to implement QQE before inflation hit 2% last. The second arrow is a fiscal stimulus. Japans parliament has approved as much as 13 trillion yen (more than 1400$) supplementary budget for the fiscal stimulus. The third arrow is structural reforms, including deregulation, promote private investment, and promote the reform of the Labor market and to join the TPP agreement and enhance agricultural competitiveness. Although Japans long-term recession, the deterioration of the balance of payments objectively provides a foundation for the yen.It is expected, become the direct factors to promote the substantial depreciation of the yen. Since October so far, the accumulated depreciation has reached more than 30% against the dollar, and the quantitative wide loose we will continue to implement the devaluation channel will remain. The yen could increase the Asian economic risks. The yen could increase the Asian economic risks while the yen to economic recovery brought some short-term effect, but in the long run there is a big uncertainty. The Japanese stock market after the peak emergence in late fall sharply, shows the market for Japan economic outlook of the lack of confidence. In addition, the yen will have on emerging market countries around larger impact. Before 1997, the substantial depreciation of the yen is the East Asian crisis of the fire, the yen that although there is no previous round but faster than the previous. And far from over, the yen could again emerging East Asia, and even the whole world of economic risk. One is economic fundamentals vulnerable emerging economies in Asia. Although villa is Asian emerging economies growth rate is higher, but due to the structural contradiction in the domestic economy, the economy not firm growth foundation. Pull is the yen hit Asias emerging economies to foreign trade. The second is for a period of time; the yen trade influence will stand out, especially South Korea.Competing with Japan economies such as Chinas Taiwan, will be the first to hit, and then spread throughout the region to export-oriented East Asian economies country. The deterioration will further impact of economic fundamentals. It is caused by the yen volatility will affect emerging Asia cross-border capital flows. The yen could cause Asias emerging economies exchange rate volatility and influence cross-border capital flows, caused by economic instability.(C) The risk of emerging economies growth potentialEmerging economies are suffering severe financial market adjustments. Emerging economies are suffering severe financial markets as the fed exit quantity adjustmentThe easing expectations, the international capital fled emerging markets, Asia Pacific, Latin America and other regions in the stock market fell sharply, and currency accelerated depreciation, emerging economies in financial markets suffer severe turbulence. Global data show that in the second quarter of the last five weeks, the emerging markets equity funds is out of $22.7 billion, a single week highest outflows of $5.6 billion, hitting a record high. Standard chartered bank, released on June 27, according to a statistics of the past emerging market equities market overall fell by about 12.9%, among them, in India, Russias decline reached 14.5%and 12.7% respectively, far higher than the developed market about 6.1% of the decline. At the same time, since May of this year, emerging economies suffer the substantial depreciation of currency, including the Indian rupee against the dollar rate more than 10%, lira, Thailand. The substantial depreciation of baht and the Indonesian rupiah have in. Capital massive outflows challenges emerging economies already weak economic growth in the capital outflow of short-term liquidity will give emerging economies facing huge pressure, on the current account deficit, a larger impact in countries with high dependence on external financing, and the part of the double deficit countries currency stable cause severe challenges, even lead to possible depreciated payment difficulties, causing the risk of a systemic financial crisis. In June, emerging economies have taken measures against capital flight and currency fluctuations, India, Thailands central bank sell dollar exchange rate, Brazil announced that it would ease part of . The control measures; Indonesia has raised benchmark interest rates. It is important to note that in addition to external demand downturn and recent unrest external financial environment, emerging economies are also positive face the challenge of various structural problems, such as Indias financial trade double deficits, Russia energy dependence, inadequate investment in Brazil, South Africas high unemployment, etc. How to effectively deal with malaise, get through the key link of steady growth as emerging economies decision-making authority facing important issues.Taken together, the second half of the international environment is still not optimistic, instability factors more. These will be on cross-border capital flows, exchange rate instability factors, international commodity product prices, the way such as foreign trade influence our countrys macro economic and financial operation, and the directly or indirectly impact on the domestic banking sector.u Secondly, our country economy half year review and perspective: five difficultiesSince , our country economic growth continued to slow, in the first half year, year-on-year increase in GDP is 7.6%, 0.2% lower than the same period last year。(1st quarter of 7.7%, 2nd Quarter of 7.5%) The current economic slowdown suffered from both long-term structural factors, and short-term cyclical factors. In the long run, it is the Labor, production efficiency and land. The change of production factors, such as the Chinese economys potential growth rate is between 7% and 8% will become the new normality for economic growth.From the second half of the year, there is still some favorable factors in our country economy. One is in China Economy is on the rapid advance of industrialization and urbanization process. People-oriented urbanization advancement will improve labor participation rate, boosting economic growth potential. Pull is and the second. China can dig more economic growth point such as Emerging consumption, cultural industry and tourism, Energy conservation and environmental protection, urban infrastructure, modern agriculture, and larger development space.Three is structural reform will release the economic potential. Since this year, the state council on promoting economic knot is three Structure adjustment has staged a series of measures These measures will further emancipate the productive forces, further released economic development potential.Despite these favorable factors for our economy we still face 5 big problems:(A) Currency is hot VS Economy is cold Total monetary credit expansion and economic growth in monetary credit amount rapid expansion, economic growth is declining. Since , represented by social financing scale rapid expand of financial data, but the entity economic indicators continue to fall. In the first half of the scale of social financing is 10.15 trillion Yuan, higher than the same period last year 30.5%. In late June, the M2 rose by 14%, while the late last month fell 1.8 percentage Point, but still higher than the same period last year and the year before 0.2 and 0.4% respectively, at higher levels. At the same time of rapid growth of monetary credit, economic growth is declining. In the first half of this year, Chinas GDP grew by 7.6% year on year, 0.2 percentages lower than the same period last year Point. In June, industrial added value increased by 8.9% as compared with the actual, respectively in the same period last year and dropped 0.6 and 0.3% last month. Two reasons result in high finance failed to bring high economic growth. Two reasons lead to the high financing fail to bring high economic growth is a lot of money is into the real estate and local government investment and financing platform, and not into the real economy. In this year Open, the real estate investment growth remained above 20% and demand for money has been more robust. Local government investment and financing platform also has a large number of financing needs, including used to Borrow new and old and so on. According to the national bureau of statistics released by the real estate development financing source Calculate, the first six months of the year, in 10.15 trillion social financing scales, about 2.8 Trillions of flow to the real estate enterprises, accounting for 27%. Although the real estate can pull the part Construction investment, the government-led investment in infrastructure is speeding up, the impact on the economy Pull up effect, but there are also a significant part of the funds mainly embodied in the asset deal, not form Into the current physical investment, no significant on the industrys leading, to economic growth Action with limited. Pull is a total social financing also has certain inflated factors. As the second, the diversification of financing market, the enterprise in different financing arbitrage space between increases, Lead to social financing has certain double counting total 1. Total social financing is not finished all the final supply to the real economy, may also include the arbitrage financing business.(B) Large scale of financing , high scale of real interest rateThe rapid growth of credit social financing, corporate finance real interest rates are high. the rapid growth of credit social financing, corporate finance real interest rates are high. In the first half of the social financing scale up to 10.15 trillion Yuan, 23800 more than a year ago. Trust loans than the same period last year growth of 258.4%, entrusted loans grew by 130% year on year. While In the same period, loans increased 5.08 trillion Yuan, grew 4.6% year-on-year. The new loans accounted for the proportion of social financing 12.4% lower than the same period last year. The enterprise faces the actual lending rates are relatively high. If you use more than 5-year benchmark lending rate on behalf of the enterprise cost of capital, in the name of the With PPI as comprehensive index of enterprise output prices, the actual cost of capital of the enterprise Is more than 5-year benchmark lending rate of 2.7% (6.8%), minus the PPI June, (In the first half of the average of 2.2%). High real interest rates inhibit investment demand. Because in the first half of the house prices rose faster, high real interest rates inhibit investment demand Real estate enterprises face the actual loan interest rate is low, and the local government investment and financing platform Interest rate is not sensitive. Therefore, real estate and local government investment and financing platform to strong capital limit the downside of nominal interest rate in the whole society. Relatively high real interest rates, resulting in to manufacturing the real economy represented by investment demand is weak. This is the current bank entity. The important reason for the economic is slack demand for loans. Superior enterprises, for example, included in the total social financing when get bank loans. When these funds are bounteous enterprise investment financial products for other companies Fund industry, included in the total social financing again.(C) Inflation in consumption and industry goodsIn the first half, due to the economic growth slow, stable consumer prices overall moderate CPI rise. The first six months, year-on-year rose 2.4%, or 0.9% lower than the same period last year. Among them, he said, the new up price factors were 1.2%, than the same period last year declined 0.7 and 0.2, respectively. Looking forward, due to the low base in the second half of last year, in the second half of the CPI increase year-on-yearSpeed will be picked up than the second quarter. But inflation pressure is not big, throughout the year CPI growth is expected toLast years Numbers. The first six months, PPI fell 2.2% year on year, a drop to expand than the same period last year 1.6%. In the fourth quarter of last year, the international commodity prices continue downward. Given the current international commodity prices may fall further, and productionCan the surplus in the short term is difficult to effectively solve the problem, the second half of the PPI is expected to continue to increase. CPI and PPI continue increase the policy regulation and control difficulty. Continue to deviate from the CPI and PPI, increase the policy regulation and control difficulty continue to deviate from the reflection of rising labor costs and global industrial demand is not prosperous, manufacturing productionExcess to more severe problems. The deviation of the CPI and PPI makes policy dilemma facing trappedThe land. On the one hand, the PPI continuous decline, manufacturing investment not flourishing, policies need to relax. But the CPI rise has restricted the policy relaxation space; on the other hand, if the CPI riseu At last we predict the second half of Chinas macro economyThe current Chinese economy is in a high-speed growth to medium growth interval. Economy faces structural contradiction and is more rely on the economic transformation and upgrading of talent. It is important to promote economic sustainable and healthy development. After a new government was founded, the government has attached greater importance to the economy. The quality and efficiency of growth, tolerance of economic growth is slowing. As a result is expected at the beginning of the central government will stick to determine the total tone, keep the policy continuity and stability, and revitalize the stock funds support structure adjustment. (A) The money supply growth is expected to continue to fall; the money supply growth is expected to continue to fall will increase. One is to increase the money supply growth continues to fall. In the first half of the M2 rose 14%, growth is down 1.8% compared with may, early but still higher than 13% the expected growth target. As the fed QE to exit the expected increase in foreign exchange fall, and regulators to strengthen supervision of the bank off-balance sheet business, M2 growth rate will fall.(B) The benchmark interest rate less likely cut, market-oriented interest rate reform process will be plus fast. Although the current weak economic growth in China, and manufacturing enterprises are faced with the real interest rate is a little bit higher, but the benchmark interest rate by the possibility of a smaller still. One is the main index is still in a reasonable annual expected range. The leadership of the state council has repeatedly said that the current growth in our country speed is still within a reasonable range, to focus on restructuring, promote reform. Pull is cut and not really is to help manufacturing enterprises out of trouble. Overcapacity is part of the manufacturing enterprises in our country. Of the main problems in the former, lower interest rates not only fail to help enterprises out of trouble. At the same time, market-oriented interest rate reform process may further accelerate the process of market-oriented interest rate reform may be further accelerated. Liabilities product marketablization of interest rate marketablization reform process may be further accelerated.(C) The market liquidity will slightly tight, the deposit reserve rate could be cut. Liquidity in the market will be a bit tight; the deposit reserve rate could be cut. Due to the foreign exchange is higher, in the first half of the year, people mainly reverse repurchase and issuance of central bank. In the second half of the feds QE to exit the expected, under the influence of outside collect numbers may fall, liquidity in the market will be in a slightly tight state. At the same time, the deposit reserve rate may be lower. From the point of horizontal, vertical, the deposit reserve rate could lower the deposit reserve rate in our country it is still at high levels for large financial institutions were 20%, 18%, small and medium-sized financial institutions. And it has a larger cut space. If the second half of the foreign exc